RE and economic charts: Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall + Mortgage Delays Blamed

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall + Mortgage Delays Blamed

[mEDITate-OR:

not look twice at these new numbers...

What we are seeing is, of course, the bump from the Buyers Tax Credit

there was also a large bump in construction jobs to get the homes built fast enough to meet the deadlines.

However, the large drop in mtg apps suggests that a large drop in sales is incoming.

But, not until the month after the next one.

Bcuz of the large increase last month, many, too?, thought that we would have another.

The problem was that many, wisely?, did not think there would be a deadline extension, nor that the Buyers Tax Credit would be re-created..., so they bought early enough to meet the deadline.

So..., what we will probably see is another slight decline next month..., and then "Niagara Falls".

Once again the NYT chart is slightly different than the AP chart (see other post), and the two charts from NAR provided by Daniel in The Atlantic show U.S. a third view.

The 2nd chart from NAR shows U.S. the "listings", however that chart has some questions. First, does it include new construction listings? Second, is the decline in listing shown, the result of sales OR is it the withdrawal of many listings by those who wanted to try to sell, but now, finding that they didn't, will try to hold on/back a while longer.

Also note, the NYT and other "sales price" info is suspect, too.

First, there were many reports that there was a large drop in listing prices or discounts, by those just BEFORE the expiration of the Buyers Tax Credit - sellers trying to get their home sold!!!. Second, we are now being told that there are even larger discounts being given/offered AFTER the deadline, by those who still NEED to sell, but were unable to do so with the benefit of the credit.

That suggests that the next months report might/should show U.S. a decline in home prices.

We will see what we will see.

===========