hold your piece...
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JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 4:22 pm
Prof Casey @ the bat: what simple-ton-of statistics are YOU looking at?
Prior to the First Time Home Buyers tax credit, and after the collapse of Wall Streets "securitizations" - mis-named? - home loans, FMae&FMac were issuing over 85% of all the RE home loans to U.S. @ 20% down.
Under the two tax credit programs over 80% of all the programs RE loans were issued by FHA as low down payment (3%) Federally insured RE loans to brand NEW home buyers. EXPEDITED = ?, PERSPECTIVE-indicted = "to charge with a fault or offense : criticize, accuse".
Have YOU ever heard a RE agent tell you that you better make an offer, bcuz there are so many "pending offers" that you might not get the house? And you think that all those non-lookieloos did NOT have any impact on the RE market? What planet are you from? The Twilight Zone planet with "The Cook(ed) Book(s)"?
In AZ we saw a huge increase in new home construction, in REO listings AND in upper priced home listings - ALL testing the market. Casey, the dog DID bark.
For you to even TRY to compare the non-existent RE market of today, to the very interesting RE market created by the tax credit programS, is like comparing an affair with being married - you are comparing sour apples with cherries. (Or, something like that.)
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JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 5:32 pm
Let's let our hair hang down:
Said you: "That’s why I expect little, if any, housing price reduction after the credit expires."
Said we: In AZ immediately prior to the expiration, we had the largest number of the largest sized listing price reductions anywhere in U.S. New home builders, "underwater" home owners AND people who needed to move to find/get a new job, tried to "buy" a buyer.
Immediately AFTER the expiration, we in AZ had an even larger number of even larger listing price reductions! The "effective" sales price AFTER the tax credit program is lower than under it. Those who would have LIKED to sell, but could not, are withdrawing from the RE market = the quitters !!!. Those who NEED to sell, are now even more desperately trying to "buy" a buyer.
IF you compare AZ with Cal, Nev and Fla, you WILL see that AZ is better off than they are. True, the least expensive/costs homes appear to have bottomed out. BUTT, of the joke, the more expensive homes are dropping like a rock!
IF you believe that housing prices will not fall, drastically, farther; you are dumber than the brick that will fall on your head - Res ipsa loquitur.
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JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 7:01 pm
Prof Casey, are you giving/showing U.S. a "mulligan":
Said you: "the $19 billion in first-time home buyer tax credits amounts to about one-tenth of 1 percent"
Said we: There is little or no condo financing, and hasn't been for over two years. Similarly, Jumbo RE loans. Foreclosures and short sales AND strategic defaults have been over 50% of the total RE market, and not just in the sand states.
So permit/forgive U.S. to ask THIS "nice" - what we call them in the law - question: "What percentage of all non-distressed "closed" RE transactions, over the last six (6) month - aka, this year - were tax credit generated?
PPPsss: Are you REALLY still @ the UofChicanery Econ Dept? MOG, how jealous ARE "Those People" like you, with all those Govt jobs going to that GD Harvard, and "can't even wag their tail" Yale? If/since you voted for Obama, are YOU ever Chicago pizza-ed!
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Don’t Give the Tax Credit Too Much Credit
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/dont-give-the-tax-credit-too-much-credit/
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