not be stunned by this "Duration of Employment" chart and argument...
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Duration of UnemploymentThis [First] graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.
Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.In July 2010, the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more declined slightly to 6.572 million (seasonally adjusted) from 6.751 million in June. It is possible that the number of long term unemployed has peaked, but it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.
The less than 5 weeks category increased in July and is now at the highest level since January - and that is concerning.
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Temporary HelpThis [Second] graph is a little complicated. The red line is the three month average change in temporary help services (left axis). This is shifted four months into the future.
The blue line (right axis) is the three month average change in total employment (excluding temporary help services).
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Diffusion Index
The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was steady at 55.6 in July. For manufacturing, the diffusion index is at 50.0; down from 53.0 in June, and down sharply from 65.9 in May.
Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.
From the BLS:
Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
The increase in the diffusion index earlier this year was one of the clear positives in the monthly employment reports. The decrease in the diffusion index over the last few months (falling to 50% for manufacturing in July), is disappointing.
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Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index
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Duration of Unemployment
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