not fully appreciate how significant the CR charts are...
showing and telling U.S. what has and what will happen to U.S.
As "They" say:
"It doesn't GET any better than this."
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There is a new, unique chart once again from CR - the 4th one below.
What CR has done for U.S. is overlay the CoreLogic chart on the Case-Shiller.
What that shows U.S. is that they track very well.
Ah, so, economic/statistical reliability.
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The 4th chart, unique to CR, shows U.S. the comparison between the last four years price declines.
What it will also do is show U.S. the next and 5th years as compared to where we are now.
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Relevant comments:
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Prices are now falling - and falling just about everywhere.
And it appears there are more price declines coming
(based on inventory levels and anecdotal reports).
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This isn't like in 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range by these measures, but it does appear prices are still a little too high. And with high levels of inventory, prices will probably fall some more.
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CoreLogic ... today released its Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the first time this year.
According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined 1.5 percent in August 2010 compared to August 2009 and increased by 0.6 percent in July 2010 compared to July 2009.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined 0.4 percent in August 2010.
“Price declines are geographically expanding as 78 out of the largest 100 metropolitan areas are experiencing declines, up from 58 just one month ago”
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REMEMBER: to go to CR for the LARGE charts
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The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 29.2% from the peak, and down 0.2% in August(SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 28.8% from the peak, and down 0.3% in August (SA).
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The 2nd graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.
The Composite 10 is up 2.5% compared to August 2009.
The Composite 20 is up 1.7% compared to August 2009.
The year-over-year increases are slowing and will probably be negative later this year.
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The 3rd graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.
Prices increased (SA) in only 1 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in August seasonally adjusted.
Only New York saw a price increase (SA) in August, and that was very small.
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first here is a 4th graph of the two Case-Shiller composite indexes, and the CoreLogic HPI (NSA).
All three indexes are above the lows of early 2009, but it appears that prices are now falling - and I expect all three indexes to show new lows later this year or in early 2011.
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This 5th graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).
Recent reports suggest rents might have bottomed, but this suggests that house prices are still a little too high on a national basis.
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The 6th graph shows the CoreLogic house price index and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index through August 2010 in real terms (adjusted with CPI less Shelter).
These indexes are still above the 2009 lows in real terms, but it is getting close, and I expect new real price lows sometime in the next few months.
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This 7th graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index is down 1.5% over the last year, and off 28.2% from the peak.
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Case-Shiller: Home Price declines widespread in August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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CoreLogic: House Prices Declined 1.2% in August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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