not see that when inventories rise as much or more than sales rise...
we are NOT making the progress that they think they see.
Most interesting is the last CR chart, which show U.S. that for the 1st half of this year, this years sales were better than last year.
But, that the sales in the 3rd quarter, the last three months, sales have been BELOW all three prior years.
That is terrible news.
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Once again, deja vu, from CR's unique and accurate charts.
As important though are Jim's comments
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This survey from the WSJ shows that the inventory increases are fairly widespread. And that suggests that price declines will probably be widespread too. This morning CoreLogic noted that house prices declined in 78 out of the largest 100 metropolitan areas in their August report.
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REMEMBER: go to CR for the large charts.
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This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in September 2010 (4.53 million SAAR) were 10% higher than last month, and were 19.1% lower than September 2009 (5.6 million SAAR)
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The 2nd graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased slightly to 4.04 million in September from August from 4.12 million in August. The all time record high was 4.58 million homes for sale in July 2008.
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The 3rd graph shows the 'months of supply' metric.
Months of supply decreased to 10.7 months in September from 12.0 months in August.
This is extremely high and suggests prices will continue to decline.
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The 4th graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.
Although inventory decreased slightly from August 2010 to September 2010, inventory increased 8.9% YoY in September. This is the largest YoY increase in inventory since early 2008.
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the 5th graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
The red columns are for 2010. Sales for the last three months are significantly below the previous years, and sales will probably be well weak for the remainder of 2010.
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September Existing Home Sales: 4.53 million SAAR, 10.7 months of supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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Existing Home Inventory increases 8.9% Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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WSJ Survey: Housing Inventories up in 19 of 28 Markets Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
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