not also see that those who speak in numbers and charts N graphs also speak volumes in words.
-------
Sold on the Top has provided U.S. not only with this very informative chart, but has given U.S. and explanation of it's importance. Where it came from and who - Prof Shiller, of Case-Shiller - created it.
You need to read this and look at the full implication of the chart.
Don't have to like it, or even believe it...
but, you DO need to know about it.
And, if you want to SEE where it's likely to happen, bookmark the:
Scary Housing Dashboard
below.
------- From Sold:
Some years back, Yale Professor Robert Shiller produced a long-run nominal home price index for the U.S. by fusing together data that had been gathered from a number of historical archives.
Shiller then adjusted the index for inflation revealing the very interesting fact that, in real terms, prices for U.S. homes changed very little over the span from 1890 to the mid-1990s.
This might come as a surprise to many since recent “common sense” notions held that homes were always a great investment carrying the implication that they must typically increase in value yet, the reality is that over the long run home prices must stay in-line with changes in the level of income (the source generally used to fund the home cost) or else typical households would not be capable of making a purchase.
Now as we are well aware, real home prices began to swell in the late 1990s reaching a peak in 2006 after having increased by over 80% nationally and even much more in some of the more frothy markets representing a massive and abrupt deviation from the long-run norm.
Since 2006 home prices have continually declined yet the current level is still significantly elevated over the level that had been typical for the 100 years prior to the bubble.
Further, it’s important to note that the ten year rate of change of real national home prices is still positive... we have yet to experience enough of a decline to erase all the gains of the prior ten years.
This paints a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals.
------
-----------
===========
Home Prices Could Decline 15-20% Further
http://seekingalpha.com/
-------------
Be sure to bookmark the Scary Housing Dashboard
http://www.blytic.com/DashboardView.aspx?dashboardid=08EC92B73AD14116A2DE9E736F7DDB87
==========
No comments:
Post a Comment