RE and economic charts: Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for November + What Shadow Inventory - AZ + Investors Continue To Target Phoenix Real Estate

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for November + What Shadow Inventory - AZ + Investors Continue To Target Phoenix Real Estate

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that the foreclosure RE markets are VERY different from each other.
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Bill@CR has been following Sacramento Cal, to see what the REO trends are.
He might be correct, that market might give U.S. a micro view.
However, what it does not show U.S. is what the micro view is in Loss Vegas or Phoenix.
Nor, with all the held back foreclosures in Florida, what was, is and more importantly what WILL be taking place there.
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Below CR's graph are some from Phoenix.
Artur, using Cromfords charts, makes a very good case for the almost disappearance of REO sales in Phoenix.
However, as he notes, the number of "short sales" has increased almost as fast as the REO sales have dropped off. What that might mean is that deeply underwater home owners are FINALLY getting the banks to share in the haircut - a little less loss for the banksters, and a little less loss for the underwater home owners.
What we are also seeing is that "all cash investors" are buying most, if not all of the cheap REOs.
The drop in REO sales is almost equal to the drop in "all cash sales".
What that might mean is that the investors are NOT willing to pay anymore than the absolute minimums.
So, unless the Banksters replenish the supply of cheap homes, those sale will dry up - like the Salt River all year round.
What Artur, and Cromford, and the AZ MLS, and most RE people believe is that THIS Spring the RE market will take off like a White Sands Missile Range Rocket.
They might be correct.
We don't share their optimism, not quite yet.
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Lender owned properties now represent only 9% of the active market
compared to 12.6% last quarter and 19.3% last year.
None the less nearly 30% of the homes that sold were bank owned homes Last month
and last year 47%.
In the 2nd chart the Pending Foreclosures are above 30,000
while the REO sales are around 3,000
And, the pendings do not include those who are merely "delinquent".
Precisely how many "pending REO" home are out there, no body seems to know, for sure.
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From AZ delinquency reports we are told that 90+ day numbers are falling.
But, we are also told that the new 30 days late numbers are rising again.
Go figure!
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