RE and economic charts: Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Oct + BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in October

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Oct + BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in October

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the fact that something shifted under U.S....
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JGBHimself says:

15 December 2011 at 12:02 am
Steven, we think that Bill@CR pointed out to U.S. that "voluntary quits" are now trending up. And, that "mass layoffs" and other "terminations" are declining.

What that might mean is that some of U.S. feel that now IS the time to give up (Y)our day jobs. And, if you do that, you probably will not be fired or let go, now.

So, if it tis now safe to shift jobs, what we might also be seeing is an increase in job openings, to fill the positions that quit.

Not new positions.

Two points:

FIRST, if it tis true that the longer you are out of work, the less likely you will find work, then it is much easier for those WITH jobs to find and take new ones.

SECOND, what we may be seeing is "musical chairs".

However, with the long term unemployed not even in the same room!

And, with there being no fewer chairs; and no more people able - and even more important, not less able - to find a chair to sit in.

And, if THAT is true...

we are simply going no where faster than we were before.

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JGBHimself says:

15 December 2011 at 5:14 am

Observed you:

"If there was a growing churning effect (people quitting and going to a new job), you would see an INCREASE in both hires and separations – and in October, we see a decline in both."

Conceded we:

Well..., maybe..., normally that would be (is) true.

However, if the increase in quits was equal to the decline in involuntary firings; and if the new hires were primarily quits, and equal to a decline in the hiring of anyone else but quits; then what looks to U.S. as "no change", is, in fact, a major change.

What we fear might be true is that what we WANT to see - more people employed; might actually not only not be occurring, but worse, all the "movement" we think we see is lateral.

The Good News could be that they are seeking and taking better paying jobs, now that they think they can. Or, that they are exiting, stage left, very bad job environments - that they were afraid to leave before.

The Bad News might be that there may not be anyone as experienced or qualified as they were to fill the jobs they left. Or, that the work environment was SO bad, that no body in their Far Right mind will be willing to take it.

Oh, and Steven, since we drink every afternoon one small pot of black tea, and one of green tea, after one of Starbucks Sumatra coffee in the mourning, we have lots of tea leaves to share wid you.

Oh, and in the WA Leg, twas well known that if Boeing publicly opposed you, that might be why your Bill died. However, if Boeing said they absolutely "know nothink!" (like Sergeant Schultz in Hogan's Heroes), then you absolutely DID know that Boeing had killed it.

So, Steven, the fact that YOU cannot see what we suspect is The Case...

only goes to prove to U.S. that it, absolutely, must be true:)

MOG, but are U fun to argue with - before Christmas.

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