The Excess Vacant Housing Supply

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that what you think you see is not what you do see...
and
what you think that you do not see, is, in fact, what you do see...
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Bill, this is all very interesting..., but...
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As we have attempted to point out to you before..
there are major problems that we have not seen before.
And, that you do not adjust for.
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First, the census only looked at "empty" homes.
That's nice. But, there are thousands of U.S. who are behind in our mortgage payments; that are not in foreclosure; and are not being forced out of our homes, yet; thousands of U.S. in robo-signed homes in Fla who may never, ever be foreclosed or evicted; and thousands of NYers who will sit where they are for up to eight (8) years before they are moved out of their homes.
While YOU might assume that those are not "vacant" homes, economically they are.
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Second, there are even more "underwater" home "owners" who are currently "current" on their rent/mortgage payments who have absolutely NO chance of ever paying off their homes, or selling them.
While YOU might assume that those are not "vacant" homes, economically they are.
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Third, there are thousands of homes being bought by "all cash investors" out of foreclosure, that are NOT rented, yet; not sold, yet; and are not, technically, vacant. Only in economic transition.
While YOU might assume that those ARE "vacant" homes, economically they are not.
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As you point out with regard to NARs existing sales...
what we used to use for measuring "stuff" was based on assumptions that we made when, for U.S., the RE markets looked "normal".
They are not now.
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Oddly, there actually is a very accurate number of "empty" homes - and the USPS has it.
They sell to bulk mailers a "delivery count" - of occupied homes.
Why they are there, how long they will still be there, USPS does not know...
But, they DO know precisely how many homes are "empty".
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Well..., Bill...
even THAT is not totally true.
They do not eliminate "immigrant drop houses"...
where some body cleans out the mailbox.
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So, Bill, you do see, do you not...
that what you think you see, you do not...
what you think you do not see, you do not...
what is empty might not be vacant...
what is not empty might be vacant...
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So, go ask Alice.
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Source	Date	Period	Total Housing Units	Change	Completions, Total	Calculated Demolitions
Census	4/1/2000		115,904,473
ACS	7/1/2000	3 Months	116,300,799	396,326	468,300	71,974
ACS	7/1/2001	1 Year	117,905,005	1,604,206	1,719,600	115,394
ACS	7/1/2002	1 Year	119,456,206	1,551,201	1,771,800	220,599
ACS	7/1/2003	1 Year	121,076,837	1,620,631	1,784,700	164,069
ACS	7/1/2004	1 Year	122,824,501	1,747,664	1,866,000	118,336
ACS	7/1/2005	1 Year	124,711,041	1,886,540	1,980,900	94,360
ACS	7/1/2006	1 Year	126,500,212	1,789,171	2,068,800	279,629
ACS	7/1/2007	1 Year	128,132,164	1,631,952	1,831,600	199,648
ACS	7/1/2008	1 Year	129,313,137	1,180,973	1,370,200	189,227
ACS	7/1/2009	1 Year	129,969,653	656,516	999,700	343,184
Census	4/1/2010	9 Months	131,704,730	1,735,077	584,000	-1,151,077
Decennial Census Change:			15,800,257		16,445,600	645,343

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The Excess Vacant Housing Supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/excess-vacant-housing-supply.html
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The American Community Survey and Total Housing Units
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/american-community-survey-and-total.html
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