think that was only an earthquake that you felt...
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Below are two posts,
one immediately below, that shows the shift in the RE market for foreclosures in Phoenix.
Two down, is Bill @ CR's take on Sacramento
and
on what he see for this next year.
You need to consider both, to fully see what is now occurring in the "foreclosure market place" and how that is affecting the rest of the RE market.
What was, is not now.
What is developing may not be what you think.
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As the song suggests:
"Slow down, you move to fast...
gotta make the morning last."
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[mEDITate-OR:
assume that you see what you want to think you can, and must, see...
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There has been a very different, but dramatic shift in "foreclosures" in Phoenix over the last year.
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bcuz the least expensive home are being sold to all cash investors, the homes that the banks/creditors DO buy are much larger and much more expensive - and, when listed, have far fewer interested buyers.
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And, that has two effects: one, when listed both the listing price and the price per sq ft also go up. And, two, IF and when they sell, the "average" sales price and price per sq ft also goes up.
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The net effect is this - when we remove the least expensive foreclosure homes from the reported MLS and national RE sales reports, ALL of the increases in "average" or "median" prices in Phoenix are fully explained - there was none.
And, the higher priced REOs are also not getting listed - why, bcuz, the REOs only get listed as fast as and to replace those being sold. Higher priced REOs simply are not selling. There is a new, different "hidden inventory".
There are two local Phoenix charts that clearly show this, one just below, and the other in the next post
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Note, in the chart from CR
that for Lost Vegas there has been no change
but, that Phoenix's "distressed sales" decline is from 70% to 60%
Or, only 10% lower.
that is still above 50%.--------
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| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-10 | Dec-11 | Dec-10 | Dec-11 | Dec-10 | Dec-11 | |
| Las Vegas | 25.3% | 26.6% | 49.8% | 46.0% | 75.1% | 72.6% |
| Reno | 30.0% | 35.0% | 39.0% | 34.0% | 69.0% | 69.0% |
| Phoenix | 21.3% | 32.2% | 48.3% | 27.6% | 69.6% | 59.8% |
| Sacramento | 22.6% | 30.2% | 44.4% | 33.9% | 67.0% | 64.1% |
| Minneapolis | 12.7% | 14.6% | 41.7% | 34.6% | 54.4% | 49.2% |
| Mid-Atlantic (MRIS) | 11.3% | 14.3% | 23.7% | 15.4% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
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Foreclosures and Short Sale percentages for a few areas
ttp://www.calculatedriskblog.
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Foreclosure Patterns Shifting
http://econintersect.com/
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