assume that what you see, is...
well, what you see...
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Cromford Report:
* foreclosures peaked in February 2009 and then stayed at fairly constant high levels until Q1 2011
* exceptions occurred in March through May 2009 (a government imposed moratorium) and in Q4 2010 (a self-imposed moratorium by Bank of America)
*foreclosures have declined significantly throughout 2011
*the slight upward blips in August and November 2011 made headline news in the local press, but they can be seen here to be almost irrelevant in the context of the overall decline
*the percentage being purchased by investors has increased and is now almost half of all trustee sales
*relatively few homes are now going back to the lenders
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And more specifically, by price range:
Homes under $100,000 – Low supply conditions heavily influencing the market. Sales prices are now 6.9% higher than last year.
Homes Between $100,000 and $200,000 - Supply and demand both move lower. Pricing is still moving up.
Homes Between $200,000 and $400,000 – Supply has fallen and sales are perking up. Pricing remains extremely stable.
Homes Between $400,000 and $800,000 – Supply is down but demand not very strong. Prices stable.
Homes over $800,000 – Supply has stopped growing but demand remains weak. Prices remain remarkably stable.
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JGBellHimself
Absolutely fascinating, is it not.
First, is the massive increase in banks buying their own foreclosures.
What anyone else had to asking themselves was: "Will this price fall even more?"
It did, and they did not buy and loose a lot of money.
Then the foreclosures stabilize, and banks began to sell to "all cash buyers" at the auctions. Bcuz, buyers could believe that while price might still fall some, they probably would not fall too much more. And, if you choose very carefully, your purchase would still be a good one. Total change in the dynamics, no?
Then this last year, the non-bank buyers continue to buy about the same number of foreclosures. BUT, the banks stop buying them. Again, another total change in the dynamics.
However, note that the change in both the 3rd and 4th Q between 10 and 11 was almost ALL the decline in banks buying their own homes back out of auction.
Then compare 4th Q's - in October there was a huge drop, but in Nov this year was almost the same as last year, and while Dec did not go up as much as last year, it did.
What will be very interesting to watch is the 1st Q. Everyone assumes that we will NOT see the same increase we saw last year, and the two years before that.
If that is true, we absolutely WILL see a major turn around in the "Phoenix RE market".
However, if we see the same increases as we did last year, then we will, like it or not, have to wait another year.
Do not hold your breath, but watch it, very closely.
JGBellHimself.
Artur has another very interesting chart from Cromford, that shows the foreclosure sales over the last few year, and who bought them. What that shows U.S. is that there has been a massive shift from banks buying their own foreclosures, and "all cash sales" to non- banks.
Some of that might be BKofA dumping "foreclosures" to raise the cash they have been told they must, to avoid being taken over by The Regulators.
As Mike Orr points out in this report, the number of REOs is way down. But, with banks NOT buying their own foreclosures, that was expected. And, if the banks don't buy them, they never become REOs.
What the chart suggests is that "all cash investors" are now buying IN foreclosure sales and NOT from the MLS.
Two points:
FIRST, what they buy IN foreclosure are probably the least expensive homes. So, the "bottom feeders" never show up in MLS or Cromford's sales. They are long gone before they ever get there. And, so the supply of the least expensive home APPEARS to have dropped, but it might not have. Only shifted from MLS over to IN foreclosure sales.
SECOND, and so, the only thing left for the banks to buy are the more expensive - ie, the higher priced per sq ft homes. And, therefore the MLS's foreclosure listing simply HAVE to go up, in price, a lot.
They really haven't...
only what we SEE still there looks like it.
only what we SEE still there looks like it.
Oh, we know, we are such pessimists.
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Trustee Sales In Phoenix Down Again
http://www.
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