Good Charts from the ERP

[mEDITate-OR:
not share in some great charts...
These are from Donald Marrion's blog

Comment on the last (#4) chart:

What you do not see in those numbers is a sad problem we hardly ever talk about. Complicated births, that are NOT covered by insurance - bcuz of limits & no coverage - occur in very large numbers. Not only are there serious and long term health problems to deal with, but the unforeseen & often unpayable expenses. That in turn leads to divorce, bankruptcy and DWI problems.

Ask any divorce, BK, or DUI attorney, and they will tell U.S. that the primary, if not sole, cause of far to many of these early adult problems is uninsured medical costs. The economic and social costs to U.S. are enormous.

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1. The boom and bust of house prices. By this measure, house prices are still historically high–except for the bubble.

2. The declining role of banks in the financial sector. Note the growth of mutual funds and ABS issuers.

4. How the rate of being uninsured varies with age.

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Good Charts from the ERP
February 15, 2010
by Donald Marron
Last week, the Council of Economic Advisers released its 2010 Economic Report of the President (ERP).
http://dmarron.com/2010/02/15/good-charts-from-the-erp/
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The Rise and Fall of World House Prices

[mEDITate-OR:
see that this is all W Bush's fault...
bcuz since he was elected all Hell broke loose...



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===========
The Rise and Fall of World House Prices
http://dmarron.com/2010/06/29/the-rise-and-fall-of-world-house-prices/
===========

Velocity of Money Still Crashing

[mEDITate-OR:
crash and burn and not even know it, yet...

See, here is The PROBLEM = the money supply assumes that money is being circulated. If it is NOT, then the "supply of money" has contracted, even though the number of dollars in circulation has grown.

Rough, to U.S., translation:  the monetary theory for economic expansion is NOT working normally, if at all.

Add to that the FED low interest rate policies did NOT increase lending - at all.

And, what we have is deja vu Japan all over again - NO traditional economic theory is working as it was intended to work.

And, if "nothing" is working properly, you aren't gonna be much longer either.

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=========
Velocity of Money Still Crashing
June 29, 2010


We are speaking of V, as in MV=PQ, of course.

All the latest news of recent days point in the same direction: the continued slowdown in money velocity.

From a quantitative standpoint, check out the graph below of the M1 multiplier, published Sunday by the St Louis Fed, which has contracted sharply in the Great Financial Crisis.

It has plunged an average of 1.60 to 1.80 to less than 1.

All those who have been crying wolf (hyperinflation), due to the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet of money supply, should think about the implications of this graph.

Money multiplier in the United States

Terrifying…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/212291-velocity-of-money-still-crashing?source=email
========
And if we take my very personal deflation criterion, which is inflationbelow the ECB's famous annual target range of +1.80% to 2%, Japan has been in deflation since…1992, with the exception of six months in 1997/98 when it "surged" to +2.4%.
With the Tokyo inflation figures as bad as ever, their situation offers little hope in that country.
Core CPI in Japan

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Mortgage Applications Index at Lowest Level since 1997

[mEDITate-OR:
see that to get a new mtg we have to apply ourselves for one...

This chart shows U.S. that the Buyer Tax Credit actually DID increase interest in new & used homes, but that when time ran out to try to find one, they quit looking.

Too bad, too.
Bcuz, in many areas the prices dropped after the BTC end, and the current new buyers are able to find homes that are less expensive without the BYC than they were before WITH using the BTC. Go figure!
----------

========
Mortgage Applications Index at Lowest Level since 1997
by Dean Baker
29.06.10
============

Chart: Home prices rise in April

[mEDITate-OR:
think that all of U.S. are equal...
and
NOT see that these are month to prior month changes, NOT year to year.

What is very interesting is that these April numbers are very different from the what we have been seeing over the last year. Once again, things are changing, differently in different places. One must ask: "Why?"

Why is Miami different than Phoenix & Las Vegas?
Why are Portland & Minneapolis different than Seattle & Charlotte?
Why is Frisco different than LA & San Diego?
------------

==========
Home prices rise in 20 major cities as buyers rush to obtain tax credit
Chart: Home prices rise in April
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices-20100630,0,6688014.story
===========

Case-Shiller: Seattle Finally Sees a Tax Credit Price Boost + more info

[mEDITate-OR:
only look once at the charts...

The following two charts are from a Seattle Blog. However, they take a very different, but interesting look at the Case-Shiller data.
In the 1st chart we see that Seattle & Portland were late to the party, compared to Phoenix & Las Vegas.
But, what we may also see is that like them Seattle & Portland are now scuffling along on the bottom.

In the 2nd chart we see that the "lastest" RE news - Mar09 to date these RE markets are VERY different.

What this web site also offers you & U.S. are some VERY interactive sites, where we - you and U.S. - get to choose which cities we would like to compare. Try them out, they are wonderful...!!!
=========
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. 
The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the thirty-two months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 24.5%, slightly less than last month.Here’s a complementary chart to that last one.
This one shows the total change in the index since last March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.

Looks like the impending expiration of free money was enough to squeeze out a little boost in most markets.
==========
Case-Shiller: Seattle Finally Sees a Tax Credit Price Boost
By The Tim on June 29, 2010
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2010/06/29/case-shiller-seattle-finally-sees-a-tax-credit-price-boost/
======

Charting the Housing Collapse

[mEDITate-OR:

Miss out on Atlantic reporting on a CR chart.

==========

As Jim's CR chart has pointed out to U.S. for a few years now, all of [y]our cities losses were not created equal.

Some micro RE observations: while Boston, Cleveland & Denver were hit hard for a non sand state in the first 07-8 wave, they have for the last two years been getting better. Where Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, Atlanta & Charlotte were relatively unscathed in the first wave, they are now seeing their RE markets weaken, a lot more - and are still dropping. While Frisco, LA & San Diego were hit hard like other sand state cities, they appear to have bottomed out earlier and are now recovering - for two full years. Whereas Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami & Tampa were hit hardest early and appear to have bottomed out, but they have not really begun to recover, quite yet. Location.

And, your point about different neighborhood effects is very well taken. Take Phoenix, please, where the first loss wave impacted the newer subprime & ARM subdivisions hardest. Now, however, they appear to have bottomed out, and are in some places rising back up again. The older, higher priced neighborhoods were hardly hit at all, then. Now, there are very few, if any, Jumbo RE loans sales. However, what sales we do see are much lower prices, now.

And that makes another point, the local ASU report, like the national Shiller one, is "re-sale" based. Since there are a lot of lower priced home re-sales, they get included in the report and we get to "see" them. However, where there are fewer, if any, Jumbo RE loan re-sales, there is nothing for them to report on - the dog didn't bark.

-------------

A different John:

One problem is that you're comparing "from peak," but not all those peaks are remotely equal.

Remember that Dallas built as much housing as those "over-built" areas during the bubble, despite those bubble areas growing even faster. Charlotte, NC built even more. They just never had the price of housing go up much, which is why prices haven't declined there.

Atlanta, too, had extremely high permitting and building rates and hasn't suffered much price declines, though more than Charlotte and Dallas (and its peak was higher).

Note that Los Angeles barely built new housing at all (measured per population), but its housing is still declining quickly because it rose so quickly during the bubble.

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Charting the Housing Collapse

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/06/charting-the-housing-collapse/58906/#disqus_thread

============

The Housing Collapse Intensifies

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand supply and demand...

This chart shows U.S. not housing starts by unit sold.
VS
how long it took to sell that completed home.

What we are seeing is the burn off of excess inventory of new homes.
vs how long it took them to do it.

What that also shows U.S. is that while the FED's moves on interest rates + the Treasury buying FMae&FMac RE securities so they could re-lend home loans + the Buyer Tax Credit...
may have stopped the collapse.
It did not bring U.S. anywhere near back to normal levels.
------------

=========
The Housing Collapse Intensifies
June 24, 2010
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211650-the-housing-collapse-intensifies?source=email
=========

Housing Is Really Bad, Any Way You Look at It

[mEDITate-OR:
be as pessimistic as you probably should be...

----------

===========
Housing Is Really Bad
Any Way You Look at It
Tim Iacono
June 24, 2010
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211721-housing-is-really-bad-any-way-you-look-at-it?source=email
========

Housing Supply Metrics

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that there are times when

a list of words and numbers is as or more powerful than a picture or chart.

===========

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Housing Supply Metrics

Housing Supply Overview
Total delinquent loans1	7.3 million
Seriously delinquent loans1,2	5.0 million
Total REO Inventory3	0.5 million
Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO4	210 thousand
Homeowners with Negative Equity5	11.2 million
Homeowner vacancy rate6	2.6%
Rental vacancy rate6	10.6%
Excess Vacant Units6,7	1.7 million
Existing Home Inventory8	3.89 million
Existing Home Months of Supply8	8.3 months
New Home Inventory9	213 thousand
New Home Months of Supply9	8.5 months

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Personal Income up 0.4%, Spending Increases 0.2% in May

[mEDITate-OR:

think that you are richer than you are..

---------

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

--------

This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1969.

-------

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the May Personal Income report. The saving rate increased to 4.0% in April (increased to 3.7% using a three month average).

=============

Remember to go to CR's web site for larger graphs

==========

Personal Income up 0.4%

Spending Increases 0.2% in May

============

With Incomes Climbing, Consumer Spending Rose in May

[mEDITate-OR:

------------

------------

===============

US consumers spending increased in May

==============

Treasurys surge after G-20 summit

[mEDITate-OR:

not understand why RE mortgage interest rates will fall, again, to new lows.

Nor are you very likely to understand why REFIs are not being made.

-------------

==============

Treasurys surge after G-20 summit

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/28/markets/bondcenter/treasurys/

============

The End is Near = Once-mighty Mesa Air Group must shrink substantially to survive

[mEDITate-OR

do like Jesus..., let others do unto you what you did to them...

{or something like that...}

What Mesa did to Aloha Airlines is now being done to them. Ha!

When confronted with a huge oversupply of planes, Mesa got the brilliant idea of WalMart-ing Hawaii.

Flood the market with cheap competition - drive everyone else out - take over the whole market.

The economic theory was simple - it is similar to the political theory of the Expandable Forum.

If you are not winning, or loosing, in the forum you are in, change the size of the forum.

Shrink it by eliminating those who don't like you; VS expand it by including those who don't know you.

Stuck with long term leases, signed for lower costs, Mesa did not have enough income to "cover" them. So, since the Lessors would not or could not take them back, Mesa either was going BK, or they had to try something else. That was to sell seats in Hawaii for "cost" or less, in order to raise enough money to pay for the leases.

Sadly, Aloha and Hawaii airlines fought back.

Mesa is now like a bigamist - almost all of its "marriages" are going from bad to worse.

Being "rejected" by everyone is not fun.

=============

Once-mighty Mesa Air Group

must shrink substantially to survive

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2010/06/27/20100627biz-mesa-air-group-bankruptcy0627.html#reply20474203
========

U.S. health-care system: Still bad

[mEDITate-OR
reject any criticism, no matter, who makes it, or why...
or
think that everything is back, or was ever, normal.

While "Who let the Dogs out" might have been written by WHO
the World Trade Organization, who is roundly criticized bye U.S.
for not putting U.S. in a very good health care light
This is the result of a new project to try to do that more fairly.
As "They" say to U.S. - be careful what you ask for....
--------
U.S. health-care system: Still bad

...The Commonwealth Foundation began a new project to assemble a comparative international picture: They chose seven countries and conducted deep, ongoing polls of both patients and health-care providers. The surveys test experiences with the system, cost questions, efficiency, convenience, health outcomes and much more. The result is a comparison based not on an outsider’s methodology but on the experiences of patients and providers.

-----------
The following chart measures per-person health-care spending. And remember, while reading it, that the U.S. is actually advantaged by this measure: Unlike other countries, we don't have universal health care, so about 50 million of us are spending less than we otherwise might:

But even with all that spending, "the U.S. ranks last overall, as it did in the 2007, 2006, and 2004 editions of Mirror, Mirror. Most troubling, the U.S. fails to achieve better health outcomes than the other countries, and as shown in the earlier editions, the U.S. is last on dimensions of access, patient safety, coordination, efficiency, and equity.

The issue isn't just that we don't have universal health care. Our delivery system underperforms, too. "Even when access and equity measures are not considered, the U.S. ranks behind most of the other countries on most measures. With the inclusion of primary care physician survey data in the analysis, it is apparent that the U.S. is lagging in adoption of national policies that promote primary care, quality improvement, and information technology." Here's a summary table:

Full report here.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/us_health-care_system_still_ba.html

============
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall:
How the Performance
of the US. Health Care System
Compares Internationally - 2010 Update
http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Content/Publications/Fund-Reports/2010/Jun/Mirror-Mirror-Update.aspx?page=all
==========