Miss out on Atlantic reporting on a CR chart.
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As Jim's CR chart has pointed out to U.S. for a few years now, all of [y]our cities losses were not created equal.
Some micro RE observations: while Boston, Cleveland & Denver were hit hard for a non sand state in the first 07-8 wave, they have for the last two years been getting better. Where Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, Atlanta & Charlotte were relatively unscathed in the first wave, they are now seeing their RE markets weaken, a lot more - and are still dropping. While Frisco, LA & San Diego were hit hard like other sand state cities, they appear to have bottomed out earlier and are now recovering - for two full years. Whereas Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami & Tampa were hit hardest early and appear to have bottomed out, but they have not really begun to recover, quite yet. Location.
And, your point about different neighborhood effects is very well taken. Take Phoenix, please, where the first loss wave impacted the newer subprime & ARM subdivisions hardest. Now, however, they appear to have bottomed out, and are in some places rising back up again. The older, higher priced neighborhoods were hardly hit at all, then. Now, there are very few, if any, Jumbo RE loans sales. However, what sales we do see are much lower prices, now.
And that makes another point, the local ASU report, like the national Shiller one, is "re-sale" based. Since there are a lot of lower priced home re-sales, they get included in the report and we get to "see" them. However, where there are fewer, if any, Jumbo RE loan re-sales, there is nothing for them to report on - the dog didn't bark.
And, your point about different neighborhood effects is very well taken. Take Phoenix, please, where the first loss wave impacted the newer subprime & ARM subdivisions hardest. Now, however, they appear to have bottomed out, and are in some places rising back up again. The older, higher priced neighborhoods were hardly hit at all, then. Now, there are very few, if any, Jumbo RE loans sales. However, what sales we do see are much lower prices, now.
And that makes another point, the local ASU report, like the national Shiller one, is "re-sale" based. Since there are a lot of lower priced home re-sales, they get included in the report and we get to "see" them. However, where there are fewer, if any, Jumbo RE loan re-sales, there is nothing for them to report on - the dog didn't bark.
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A different John:
One problem is that you're comparing "from peak," but not all those peaks are remotely equal.
Remember that Dallas built as much housing as those "over-built" areas during the bubble, despite those bubble areas growing even faster. Charlotte, NC built even more. They just never had the price of housing go up much, which is why prices haven't declined there.
Atlanta, too, had extremely high permitting and building rates and hasn't suffered much price declines, though more than Charlotte and Dallas (and its peak was higher).
Note that Los Angeles barely built new housing at all (measured per population), but its housing is still declining quickly because it rose so quickly during the bubble.
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Charting the Housing Collapse
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