U.S. Trade Gap Swells in June as Exports Fall

[mEDITate-OR:

not have seen THIS one incoming...

Tis Summer, when the toys are bought, and later delivered, for our Christmas pleasure(s)...

And, all those cheap EURO cars and goodies were delivered to U.S. as we ask them to.

Imports poured in from all across the globe

Imports from the European Union and Germany were the highest since October 2008

South Korea and Taiwan hit the highest since July 2008

with United Kingdom were the highest since October 2009

The deficit with Mexico was the highest since May 2008

with the European Union was the highest since July 2009

The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $26.2 billion in June

up from both $18.4 billion in the same month last year and $22.3 billion in May.

It was the highest deficit since October 2008.

exports of goods alone slipped 2.2% to $105 billion

with exports of farm products at the lowest since September 2009

Some will blame everything on China, tis not close to the truth, but who cares.

-------

-------------

----------

===========
U.S. Trade Gap Swells in June as Exports Fall
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/us-trade-gap-swells-in-june-as-exports-fall/61297/
-----------
Trade gap widens sharply in June amid appetite for imports
U.S. deficit of $49.9 billion comes in highest since October 2008; exports decline
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=123AD28E-9C0C-439D-92A2-D1DFD2A740B7
========

Trade Deficit increases sharply in June

[mEDITate-OR:
not want to see the different views of CR

With the 1st chart CR shows U.S. the "normal" view - both exports and imports.
However, what this also shows U.S. is the FACT that both almost "track" - even in recessions. The gap has grown along with the size.

What the 2nd chart does for U.S. is separate the price of imported oil.
However, what this also shows U.S. is that between 04 and 09 when W quit on U.S., the trade deficit w/o oil was shrinking, a lot. But, oil was still getting worse.
However, in late 08 before W left, the economy's collapse also reduced the deficit - we simply stopped buying "stuff" from China.

Now, we are baa-a-ack....!!
---------
The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2010.

Clearly imports are increasing much faster than exports. On a year-over-year basis, exports are up 17% and imports are up 29%. This is an easy comparison because of the collapse in trade at the end of 2008 and into early 2009.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

============

Trade Deficit increases sharply in June

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/trade-deficit-increases-sharply-in-june.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
==========

Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 811 institutions

[mEDITate-OR:

not remember...

when you're up to your arm pits in what you "do do"

stop digging..., and give a Shiite about what you see...

or

----------

Remember to go to CR's web site for the LARGE charts.

--------

This graph shows the number of banks on the unofficial list.

The number of institutions has more than doubled since we started the list in early August 2009 - even with all the bank failures (failures are removed from the list). The number of assets is up 50 percent over the last year.

On August 7, 2009, we listed 389 institutions with $276 billion in assets, and now the list has 811 institutions and $416.5 billion in assets.

----------

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 6, 2010.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/unofficial-problem-bank-list-aug-6-2010.html

=========

Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 811 institutions

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases.html

===========

Forced to retire, some take Social Security early

[mEDITate-OR:

not be stunned by this chart and argument...

Notice THIS:

It appears part of the mystery of "where everyone disappeared to?"

as the labor force participation rate plunges is:  Social Security

Early payments (at reduced amounts) jumped significantly for both the male and female population; strikingly high for males who have been harder hit in this recession as manual jobs disappear and the economy continues to focus on services.  In both cases, almost three quarters of people taking social security in 2009, filed early.

Absolutely stunning, and logical.

But think about this:

the largest component of the long term unemployed are those aged right before retirement.

Why wouldn't they use up all of the UI benefits..., and when they cannot find a job...

simply retire and collect the SS benefits they paid into all of their lives.

They played by The Rules for most of their lives, and now are using them to protect themselves.

Not only logical, ethical too.

------------

Paul Skidmore's office is shuttered, his job gone, his 18-month job search fruitless and his unemployment benefits exhausted. So at 63, he plans to file this week for Social Security benefits, three years earlier than planned.  "All I want to do is work," said Skidmore, of Finksburg, Md., who was an insurance claims adjuster for 37 years before his company downsized and closed his office last year. "And nobody will hire me."

It is one of the most striking fallouts from the bad economy: Social Security is facing a rare shortfall this year as a wave of people like Skidmore opt to collect payments before their full retirement age.   "I knew I had to have an income from somewhere, and my business wasn't giving it to me," she said. "I just went online and, boom, three weeks later I had the check."

---------

63-year-old Jan Gissel of Tustin, Calif., also was forced into retirement early. She turned to unemployment benefits when her technical support business failed and filed for Social Security last September. Together, the checks are keeping her afloat.

-------------

More people filed for Social Security in 2009 -- 2.74 million -- than any year in history, and there was a marked increase in the number receiving reduced benefits because they filed ahead of their full retirement age. The increase came as the full Social Security retirement age rose last year from 65 to 66.

---------------

Nearly 72% of men who filed opted for early benefits in 2009, up from 58% the previous year.

--------------

More women also filed -- 74.7% in 2009 compared with 64.2% the previous year.

-------------

"When you retire early, you are taking a hit in your monthly check, and most people don't do that voluntarily," she said. "They either do that because they aren't healthy enough to keep working or because they lost their job."

=========

Forced to retire, some take Social Security early
http://www.benzinga.com/10/08/421797/ap-forced-to-retire-some-take-social-security-early
---------
Forced to retire, some take Social Security early
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Forced-to-retire-some-take-apf-2191994302.html;_ylt=AuT6h_O3kH64ykiRX_D8v8exba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFlNzNnNHJnBHBvcwM0OARzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawNmb3JjZWR0b3JldGk-?x=0#mwpphu-container
===========

Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index + Duration of Unemployment

[mEDITate-OR:

not be stunned by this "Duration of Employment" chart and argument...

-------------

Duration of Unemployment
This [First] graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.In July 2010, the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more declined slightly to 6.572 million (seasonally adjusted) from 6.751 million in June. It is possible that the number of long term unemployed has peaked, but it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.
The less than 5 weeks category increased in July and is now at the highest level since January - and that is concerning.

-----------

Temporary Help
This [Second] graph is a little complicated. The red line is the three month average change in temporary help services (left axis). This is shifted four months into the future.

The blue line (right axis) is the three month average change in total employment (excluding temporary help services).

-------------

Diffusion Index

The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was steady at 55.6 in July. For manufacturing, the diffusion index is at 50.0; down from 53.0 in June, and down sharply from 65.9 in May.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.

From the BLS:

Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

The increase in the diffusion index earlier this year was one of the clear positives in the monthly employment reports. The decrease in the diffusion index over the last few months (falling to 50% for manufacturing in July), is disappointing.

======

Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/employment-report-temporary-help-and.html

---------------

Duration of Unemployment

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/duration-of-unemployment.html

=======

July Employment Report: 12K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate + Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
forget that July had to happen...

These are probably the best charts available to U.S., along with the best explanation, for the monthly DOL unemployment numbers.
-------
Remember: go to the CR web site and click for the LARGE charts.
----------
This [1st] graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 131 thousand in July. The economy has lost 52 thousand jobs over the last year, and 7.7 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 12,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.5 percent.

------------

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines will rejoin later this year when the Census hiring is unwound.

-----------

This [3rd-alternative] graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (Both the 1991 and 2001 recessions were flat at the bottom, so the choice was a little arbitrary).

The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring. In July, there were 196,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. The number of Census workers will continue to decline - and the gap between the solid and dashed red lines will be gone in a few months.

Employment-Population Ratio

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.4% in July from 58.5% in June. This had been increasing after plunging since the start of the recession, and the recovery in the Employment-Population ratio was considered a good sign - but the ratio has now decreased for three consecutive months.

This [4th] graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

-----------

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged over the month at 8.5 million but has declined by 623,000 since April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 8.53 million in July. This small decline was a little bit of good news.

--------------

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are 6.,572 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This is 4.3% of the civilian workforce, just below the record set last month. (note: records started in 1948). The number of long term unemployed might have peaked ...perhaps because people are giving up.

============

July Employment Report: 12K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/july-employment-report-12k-jobs-ex.html

------------

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/employment-population-ratio-part-time.html

=========

Foreclosure numbers fall, but AZ still No. 2 + July Foreclosures Grow as Banks Continue to Take Back Properties

[mEDITate-OR
miss the location, location, location...
Below are three Business Journal articles: Phoenix, Atlanta & So Florida.
Same RealtyTrac press release & data, totally different stories.
They ARE worth reading, each of them, bcuz each not only provides U.S. with a view of their own RE economic situations, BUT, they provide quite different segments of the full RealtyTrac story.
The last article is a very good over view of the full dimension of the foreclosure problems, AND it has The Map - which shows U.S. that it really IS "location".
What was originally the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ...
is now spreading up the West Coast
and moving inland to cover Idaho, Utah and Colorado !!!
As my comment below points out, the problem is lessening in the worst, sand states
BUT, it is growing AND spreading all across U.S.
NOT Good on ya Mate.
-------------
As one of your other BJs pointed out, foreclosures are down in the sand states - the largest underwater RE markets, even so still with 50% of all foreclosures.
As another article/study of ARM loans tells U.S., of the worst of the subprime & ARM loans, over 50% of all RE loans to U.S. between 03 and 07, more than 80% of them are "in trouble" - behind in payments, underwater, already out or now in foreclosure, already in or about to be in BK.
More relevant, IF they are correct, is their argument that MOST of the ARM loans - those that are scheduled for resets this and next year - have already been or are being washed out of the market this year! And, if THAT is true, there will be NO new flood of ARM foreclosures.
Finally, the sand states, aka Arid-zone-Ah - get a break. So, IF we can create some jobs for U.S., the worst may be really, truly, over.
--------------
There were 1,654,634 foreclosures in the United States for the first half of 2010, up 8.3 percent over the first half of 2009.
The top 10 worst states and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Nevada -- 64,429
Arizona -- 91,484
Florida -- 277,073
California -- 340,740
Utah -- 18,058
Georgia -- 71,949
Michigan -- 78,509
Idaho -- 10,799
Illinois -- 85,223
Colorado -- 30,177
The top 10 worst metro area and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Miami -- 94,466
Los Angeles -- 93,263
Chicago -- 78,022
Phoenix -- 73,352
Riverside, Calif. -- 63,717
Las Vegas -- 53,525
Atlanta -- 52,381
Detroit -- 47,563
New York -- 44, 522
Orlando, Fla. -- 37,352
===========

=============
Foreclosure numbers fall, but AZ still No. 2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/08/09/daily47.html?surround=lfn
-----------
Atlanta has sixth-most foreclosures through Q2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2010/07/26/daily64.html
---------
RealtyTrac: July foreclosures rise
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2010/08/09/daily26.html
==============
July Foreclosures Grow as Banks Continue to Take Back Properties
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-july-residential-foreclosures-realtytrac-home-foreclosures-foreclosure-rates-home-buyer-tax-credit-us-foreclosure-market-report-2985.php
============

Jobless claims jump to 5-month high + Trend Higher

[mEDITate-OR:

think that it was fun, while it lasted...

What we see in these charts is quite different...

even though the data is the same.

AP shows U.S. from peak to now.

So does RTT but they compress it, some.

NYT shows the same flat chart as last month & prior 8

The last chart from SeekingAlpha shows it from when the bottom fell out in Aug 08.

Pick the one you like.

-------------

-----------

-------------

-----------

================

How states fared on jobless claims, at a glance

By The Associated Press (AP) – 9 hours ago

New applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to their highest level since February, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's the latest evidence of a weakening economy and a sign that some employers are still cutting their staffs.

Here's a look at the states with the biggest changes in initial jobless claims, and some of the reasons for the shifts. The state data is for the week ending July 31, one week behind the nationwide figures.

States reporting the largest increases in claims:

Wisconsin: Up 1,901

Georgia: Up 1,738, due to layoffs in the construction, trade and manufacturing industries

Pennsylvania: Up 1,536, due to layoffs in the trade and service industries

Ohio: Up 1,188, due to layoffs in manufacturing

New York: Up 1,159, due to layoffs in construction, trade and services

States reporting the largest decreases in claims:

Indiana: Down 4,377

Florida: Down 3,816, due to fewer layoffs in construction, trade, services, manufacturing and agriculture

Tennessee: Down 2,465, due to fewer layoffs in trade, service and transportation equipment industries

Illinois: Down 2,056, due to fewer layoffs in construction, trade and manufacturing

Kentucky: Down 1,567

=============

Jobless claims jump to 5-month high

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/12/news/economy/initial_jobless_claims/

===========

New Jobless Claims Trend Higher

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220225-new-jobless-claims-trend-higher

==========

Mortgage rates hit 4.44 pct. as economy sours + 30-year mortgage at lowest rate since 1971 + Set Record Low for Eighth Week

[mEDITate-OR:

not remember when we saw this last time...

each week, for the last 8...

and shortly after my son was born.

With the decision by the FED to re-invest FMae&FMac mortgage funds back into 10 yr TBills, this pattern will probably stay in this place for a long, long time.

----------------

---------

-----------------

------------

===========

30-year mortgage at lowest rate since 1971

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/12/real_estate/mortgage_rates/index.htm

==============

Mortgage rates hit 4.44 pct. as economy sours

http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2010/08/12/20100812mortgage-rates-another-record-low.html

===========

China - High trade surplus 'likely to remain'

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that things are NOT as clear as most of U.S. think they are...

First, China bought a LOT more from U.S. last month, and from Europe.

Total imports to China fell by more than 10%, but not from U.S.

Second, there is NO mention of the U.S. deficit with China.

How much did that increase or decrease?

Third, Get Ready for Christmas..., or are you giving "coal" to your children.

---------

Exports in July shot up 38.1 percent from the same period last year, bringing trade surplus to a 18-month high of $28.7 billion

imports grew only 22.7 percent year-on-year, at a much slower pace than expected.

Growth in imports fell to 22.7 percent, from 34.1 percent in June

China's imports from the United States and European Union reached the highest since February

rising by 33 percent for US imports and 34 percent for EU imports year-on-year

Exports to South Korea and Singapore accelerated to 40.3 percent and 11.2 percent in July, from 37.4 percent and 8.4 percent in June

------------

============

China - High trade surplus 'likely to remain'
http://english.eastday.com/e/100811/u1a5385140.html
======

Lender Losses Mount From Short Sales, Topping $310 Million in 2010

[mEDITate-OR:

try to keep selling long..., when you should be selling short...

{or something like that}

While these number are still small, compared to foreclosures, the article does explain where this is occurring, and a best guesstimate of how much it is costing U.S.

Once again, the sand states are skewing (sp?) the numbers and the RE economy.

--------
CoreLogic 2010 Short Sale Research Study Highlights
a.   The number of short sales in the market has more than tripled since 2008 with the estimated annual volume at 400,000. Multiple variables indicate short sales will continue to be a frequent and important part of the mortgage industry.
b.   Over half (55.8 percent) of all short sales occur in just four states (California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona).
c.   Approximately four percent of short sales have a subsequent resale within 18 months. Short sale transactions may be deemed risky to the lender when either: 1) the second sale amount is vastly higher than the short sale amount, and 2) the two sale transactions are executed within a very short window of time.
d.   Short sale fraud exists. While the exact definition of what constitutes fraud continues to evolve, CoreLogic analysis indicates lenders are consistently incurring more loss than necessary. Approximately one in every 53 (1.9 percent) short sale transactions was part of an egregious flip and therefore deemed risky.
e.   It is estimated that lenders are incurring unnecessary losses of $300 million in short sale transactions annually
==========
Lender Losses Mount From Short Sales, Topping $310 Million in 2010
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-corelogic-2010-short-sales-research-study-lender-losses-short-sales-california-short-sales-florida-short-sales-texas-short-sales-2980.php
========

Fed decision: Recovery losing steam = The Fed's great something-flation debate

[mEDITate-OR:

not see the connection between the FED buying more 10yr TBills..

and RE mortgage interest rates.

This is however, a half way measure for smokers...

Note: that the FED is NOT buying any MORE bonds, only re-investing the funds from those that are paid off.

Also, however, note: that the FED is using the proceeds from the US$ 1.5 Trillion FMae&FMac securities to BUY more TBills.

Using RE funds to drive down the price of mortgage interest rates...!!!

Not all that a bad move.

The US$ 64 whatever-zillion question is...., will it work, or do we need more.

Being male, we always think we want more.

----------

-----------

==========
Fed decision: Recovery losing steam
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/10/news/economy/fed_decision/index.htm
==============
The Fed's great something-flation debate
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/05/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
============

German exports rose by 28.5% and imports by 31.7% in June compared with 2009

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how very GOOD this news is...
once again, from FinFacts!!!

The strongest economy in Europe is almost back to full strength...
The fall of the EURO hurt all of them, but "exporters", like Germany, more.

This might not "save" the Pigs, but it will not "doom" them either.
China is OK and Germany is OK.
VERY good news.
-----------------

===========
German exports rose by 28.5%
and imports by 31.7% in June compared with 2009
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020324.shtml
=============

House gives needy states $26 billion for Medicaid, teachers

[mEDITate-OR:

not see this as a REAL "jobs" bill...

and

the fulfillment of The Promise of Medicare

There are some Bill that promise jobs, but don't deliver them.

This one will, to Hard core "D" supports, too.

Medicaid is not only "senior citizens" number one concern..., at the polls...

but, it was a medical service provided by the states and unfunded by U.S.

One Unfunded Mandate that DID get mandated.

The states - R & S - told U.S. that THAT bill had to be paid.

----------------

Fiscal relief for states

Here's how much each state could receive in federal assistance from the $26 billion Medicaid and education jobs bill.

=========

House gives needy states $26 billion for Medicaid, teachers
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/10/news/economy/House_state_aid_medicaid_teachers/index.htm
=========

China Sees Strength in Exports, But What About Imports?

[mEDITate-OR:

miss the incoming troubles, in China...

Exports expanded, in part, bcuz China was worried about the EURO effects on them.
Imports contracted, in part, bcuz China's own economy is showing.

They are not in trouble, yet; but they will protect themselves first.

-----------------

---------

======
China Sees Strength in Exports, But What About Imports?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/219841-china-sees-strength-in-exports-but-what-about-imports

==========