RE and economic charts

Friday, October 7, 2011

Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected + Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that the vacancies almost equal the loss in population/jobs

---------

What is also interesting is that

this year the job gains are equal to 4.78%

and

next year equal to 9.23%

of the prior three years losses.

Or in two years AZ will recover 14.0% of the prior three years losses.

-------------
In the next two years AZ will gain back less than were lost last year in 2011.
---------

In numbers 15,500 + 29,900 = 45,400

Losses were 324,000

Therefore we are still down by over 300,000

- IF you add in population growth.

--------

Translated = If we grow by this years rate it will take over 20 years to recover

But, if we grow by next years projection, it might take only 10 years

---------------

Almost 14 percent of all homes are empty in Maricopa County

227,696 single-family homes, condominiums and apartments were empty

Tucson has about 230,000 housing units.

So Maricopa County's vacancies are the equivalent to an empty city the size of Tucson.

Maricopa County's population grew 24 percent

while its housing stock grew 31 percent.

In 2009..., Phoenix had more than 100,000 houses built in 2004-06 still sitting empty.

----------------

Statewide, housing units increased 30 percent from 2000 to 2010.

The state's population grew 25 percent during the same time.

---------------

Clark County, home to Las Vegas, actually had a higher vacancy rate of 14.9 percent.

But it is not among the nation's 10 most-populous counties.

==============

The state lost has 324,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007

Arizona employers are expected to add more jobs than they cut in 2011

- the first year that has happened since 2007

Arizona is expected to gain 15,500 non-farm jobs in 2011, compared with last year

In 2012, the state is projected to gain 29,900 jobs over 2011

in Arizona's health care and private-education industries

projected to see 4.5 percent growth in 2011, adding 15,400 jobs,

and another 3.6 percent bump in 2012, up 12,900 jobs

============
Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/10/07/20111007maricopa-county-tops-home-vacancies-list.html
---------------
Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/10/06/20111006biz-arizona-jobs-forecast-worse-than-projected-brk06-ON.html
==========

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

CoreLogic = Shadow inventory declines to five-month supply + Existing Home Shadow Inventory Declines to 1.6 million units

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where all those empty homes went to...
except for the ones they forgot to empty.
------------
Good Morning, CoreLogic

This months September 27, 2011 CoreLogic Reports Shadow Inventory Continues to Decline

is once again, very interesting.

However, we note some things that are what we call "a puzzlement".

For example;

When we view your months supply chart, we see that IF

we compare that last three January and July numbers we see that they are very similar.

True, the Jan 10 number of months is the highest, but the Jan 09 and 11 months appear to be about the same level

Is that truly the case?

When we look at what happened AFTER July, in 09 and 10 there was a Steep increase to the next Jan

Is there any reason to believe that will not happen this year?

We expect those answer to be both "yes".

When we view your total inventory chart, once again 09 appears to be very similar to 11

with a slight decline in REO inventory, but an increase in pending FC inventory.

so that IF the banksters move more FC inventory into REO inventory we would be almost identical.

Two very serious questions:

First, BoA has recently increase their West Coast NOTS by 116%, more than double.

In, of all places, the sand states of Cal, Nev and AZ (with WA & Ore thrown in)

The question is, of course, does your FC inventory include ALL of those BoA filings?

Or will you be adding them later?

Second, there is a HUGE controversy about Arid-zone-Ahh.

Some argue, using your reports, that all three of the categories you show U.S. are almost gone in AZ.

Some do not believe that is necessarily true.

So, CoreLogic, can you ask The Putative Economist

aka, One (1) Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic

to tell U.S. if HE knows? What the numbers really are in AZ?

And, can he show U.S. that Az is almost empty?

Well, of immigrants, true; but...

of any and all "shadow inventory" ??

IF this is already shown somewhere, tell me were to go...

to find it.

---------------

---------

=========
Shadow inventory declines to five-month supply: CoreLogic
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/09/27/shadow-inventory-declines-to-five-month-supply-corelogic
---------------
Shadow Inventory in U.S. Continues to Decline in July
Supply Falls to 1.6 Million Units
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/shadow-inventory-residential-foreclosures-corelogic-multiple-listing-services-mls-listings-unsold-homes-distressed-sales-reo-properties-for-sale-4819.php
--------
CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory Declines to 1.6 million units
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/corelogic-existing-home-shadow.html
==========

Sunday, September 4, 2011

[mEDITate-OR:

as JGBell

Wrote on Sun, 9/4/2011 - 10:42 am

Bill, fascinating, as ever. However, there is another view of this data that most of U.S. need, that is not shown here.

First, as you are only too well aware, there have been a few layoffs. Some argue that a huge number of U.S. have not only lost our jobs, but have taken "early SS retirement". And, possibly many have delayed taking SS retirement at 65, for economic reasons.

But, your 'time lines" not only do not show U.S. that, they blur the possible impacts.

The first group is not really 55 to 60, but 55 up to 62. The second group are those from 62 up to 65. The third group is after 65 until 71. And, the fourth group is 72 on.

Group 1 cannot retire, and if long term unemployed, they are skewered (sp?). Group 2 can take early retirement, at a cost, but ARE they? Group 3 are those @, or for the non-numeric, AT their current retirement age. They can "retire" with full benefits, but ARE they? Or, are they staying bcuz of economic reasons - either bcuz they need more income, OR that they do not need the money and can wait to get the yearly increases? Group 4 is at the age where they get what they get - no more, no less, unless they die.

What MATTERS to the rest of U.S. is what is really happening to those who can NOT retire early, and have lost their jobs? What is really happening to those who CAN take early retirement - did they? Stop paying in, and begin collecting? And, what is really happening to those who could get full benefits? Do they need to keep working, and are they?

IF you do not show that to U.S., how are the rest of U.S. to know?

IF you cannot be bothered (that was unforgivable, was it not)

can you tell at least one of U.S. where to find the accurate numbers?

-------------

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=========
CR Update: Labor Force Participation Rate by Age
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/update-labor-force-participation-rate.html
=======

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that they have thought of everything....
and fully accounted for it.
Much like our US$ in Afghanistan.
-------------

JGBHimself says:

3 September 2011 at 11:28 pm

Setting aside the fact that we find you, and almost all of your postings, to be far superior to almost everything else we read, we were shocked, absolutely SHOCKED, to see you feeling sorry for yourself, when you said: "But it just makes you mad when money is wasted on an ineffective stimulus – and it clouds your ability to trend the data."

You po' baby. Yo' "models" didn't work they way you thought they would!!!

Brings tears to my eyes.

No - not that your models didn't work; but that you totally missed what did NOT happen - aka, the dog didn't bark.

Steve, let's - you, me and U.S. - try to get serious. Well, for the moment.

What if W had NOT "nationalized" FMae&FMac, who were at the time doing over 85% of ALL loans made to U.S.? What IF China's US$ 35 Billion a month subsidy of home loans had NOT been replaced by the FED/Treasury? What IF the total RE market had collapsed/frozen and there were NO home loans made at any price to any of U.S.?

Have you modeled/analyzed THIS one?

How many of the outstanding/overhanging inventory of new construction homes were sold to "brand new home buyers tax credit" purchasers? Do you know? Who would have bought them, if they had not? Anybody? What if that "absolutely NOT 'hidden' inventory" still existed?

How many more builders, subs N supplier, local bank construction lenders - RE agents, escrows, title cos, mortgage brokers, et al, et ux - would have been totally wiped out?

Have you modeled/analyzed THAT one?

True, home builders would have had even more & larger losses to write off under their new IRS rules. Steve, do you have ANY idea how much THAT little chunk of change is?

JMC, we might have a balanced budget today if we had not given that money away.

(and, yes, Steve, that is, and is not, a joke)

What even your own charts show U.S. is that post hoc, ergo propter hoc - AFTER the "nationalization" and the Buyer's tax credits, the steep decline stopped.

Permanently, of course not. But, for you to assume that "nothing much happened", other than them messing with Yo' charts, is very much in horror (sp?).

Tis, in fact, The Fact that they DID mess up "your charts" that we are not in a full depression. And, yes, we do know that is "argumentative". Prove me wrong.

Even more to the point, and we are seriously complementary here, can you use your "charts" to show U.S. what w/c/should not have happened IF they had done nothing?

To argue that nothing was changed, you are obligated to show U.S. what would have occurred if nothing had happened.

Tis like being in college, once again; and saying that since wearing a condom was proven to prevent your being able to "feel everything on your Far Right side", that if only you had NOT worn one, nothing significantly bad would ever have happened.

Non post hoc, ergo propter non hoc.

(or something like that:)

----------

==========
Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=12598
===========

On The Margin: Total Unemployment July + Envisioning Employment Aug+ Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration Aug + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August

[mEDITate-OR:
be oblivious to the striking differences between Bill@CR and Dan@Atlantic
and Over the Top @ PE.
Each has a very, often unique view of the same data
and that each gives U.S. very different insights.
---------
OtTop looks more at the total picture...
favoring U-6 data over the very narrow U-3
and
as you will see in the post below
the Food Stamp consequences of "being unemployed".
-------
This does NOT mean that Bill@CR does not see the seriousness of our little predicament...
you only have to read his comments in his articles this month to see that...
but, he is trying very hard to BE objective with his charts.
------
Dan@Atlantic points to his own point of view, with is usually very accurate.
----------
OtTop is a wee skoshi bit more opinionated.
Not at all wrong, but much more pointed.
One might call him "more colorful"...
might one not!
-------------------

---------

-------

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==========
On The Margin: Total Unemployment July 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-margin-total-unemployment-july-2011.html
------------
Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
------------
Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/envisioning-employment-employment.html
========

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
forget the 2nd rule of The Law:
IF you DO know the answer to The Question...
and do NOT want to hear it...
be GD sure that you do not ask it.
----------
or...
ask yourselves:
What would Jesus do...
about the least of these?
-----------
Over the Top @ PE
provides U.S. with this unique view.
No body else talks, or shows U.S. about These People.
--------
The Good News is...
that even if they ARE Christians...
they cannot buy wine.
So, all those Catholic Mexicans, in Arid-zone-Ah
are being forced to attend Communion.
---------

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----------

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=========
On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation-june.html
========

Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes + Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that we are all in this together...
and NOT
understand that inequality does not end with CEO's salaries.
---------
Setting aside the very real question of whether or not it still makes any economic sense to "buy" an education in this economy...
the issue remains is what is happening to you if you DOo have one, and what if you do NOT.
-----
later we will post PE-Over the Top's charts on these issues
but, see what Bill@CR is telling U.S...:
Good people, who finished HS and went to work "In Detroit", etc, are now "expendable".
And, they have absolutely NO where to go.
---------
Obama may need to go back to Church - the old one.
Then, he may SEE the level of desperation in the Black Male community.
----
Do you find it as odd as we do...
that the White Male-Tea Party community - and it IS a community of think alikes - all believe that They are much worse off than the Blacks are.
Or, maybe they could give a Shiite less about The Blacks...
and now see that the Mexicans are really doing to 'em...
what the Blacks were trying to do.
-------
Of course, this has absolutely NOTHING to do with college football or basketball.
We did NOT ask you whether or not ANY Southern university sports team c/w/should win..., without a majority of Black athletes.
---------

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===========
Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/duration-of-unemployment-unemployment.html
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Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/employment-summary-part-time-workers.html
=======

CR = August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate

[mEDITate-OR:
pretend that this is NOT abnormal...!
-----------
While we usually post CR's charts fit to this blog
these two "beginning" chart NEED to be seen as they are.
--------
Bill@ CR was one of the first to point out that the "Participation Rate" had severely shrunk.
This 1st chart is his new view of unemployment seen through the prism of Participation.
Great work, once again.
-----------
The 2nd chart is his unique view of how bad this really is.
Only Ms C at Economix-NYT regularly shows U.S. this absolute disaster.
-----------
Enjoy, you Devil, you.
------------

----------

=========
CR =
August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/august-employment-report-0-jobs.html
=========

Zero Jobs: In August, the Worker Recovery Stopped Cold + Recovery Returns: What You Need to Know About the Economy in July + August's Big Reversal for Manufacturing and Retail Jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the fact that Dan@Atlantic has returned from vacation...
fully refreshed.
----------
While this is very good
you do need to remember that he is also ignoring those who fell off the turnip truck.
And, while his "explanations" are more than we usually get from Bill@CR or from Over the Top...
they are less thorough than from Dirk TBFIL
---------
What Dan is telling U.S. is that as bad as the labor stats are
the rest of the economic signals are mixed.
---------
However, you DO need to read Dan's 3rd article.
THAT will set you back a few paces.
-------------
The Bad: The "Establishment Data"

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=======
The Slightly Less Bad News: "Household Data"
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============

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=============

==========
Zero Jobs: In August, the Worker Recovery Stopped Cold
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/zero-jobs-in-august-the-worker-recovery-stopped-cold/244480/
--------------
Recovery Returns: What You Need to Know About the Economy in July
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/recovery-returns-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-economy-in-july/244450/
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August's Big Reversal for Manufacturing and Retail Jobs
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/augusts-big-reversal-for-manufacturing-and-retail-jobs/244496/
==========

5 Question Raised by the Government's Coming Mortgage Lawsuits + Government Going After Banks for Shoddy Mortgage Securities

[mEDITate-OR:
not ask the questions that Dan did not ask...
and should have.
So, without any further "adieu", to you...
-------------
JGBellHimself
The short answers are:
The data was now available, very, very, absolutely not, and yes.
The 1st Q is not as simple as you suggest that it is: one, your W "nationalized" the game - which meant that not only did the CEOs change, but the legal team did to. And, when FHFA was not placed directly under the Executive, they are quasi-independant - able to make their own decisions based upon The Law, the economics, and the possible retention of their jobs and pensions.
What is MOST significant however was the receipt of The Docs from the subpoenas that were issued. You do remember do you not, that The Big Bad Banksters did try to stonewall? With people like Yves telling/showing them where to look and what to look for, they demanded, and got, "The Evidence".
Some believe that it is perfectly OK to sue even if you don' t have the evidence in hand - by assuming that you will be able to find it, someday, some way. Oddly, some Govt lawyers prefer to assemble at least a prima facie case before they file.
And, that is what happened here. They went and got The Stuff, took the time to look it over, and then filed.
But, not to worry, Dan, "They" will try to "plea bargain"; and if that doesn't work they will ask for a Presidential Pardon. Good only knows they will have paid enough in the next 13 months to get one.
Does that mean this was not a quasi-political decision? Are there ANY decisions made in DC that are not (and, no, that was not a question).

-------------
JGBellHimself
Said you re Q 3: "As other investors file similar suits, uncertainty may again begin to cloud the financial sector..."
Point out we: NYLife, Metropolitan, and other insurance COs have already sued. So have numerous state and local pension plans, like Calpers. The strength of their cases are significantly made better by the "revelations" that the Federal Subpoenas produced. Will they piggyback? Who knows, why they would not.

This does not address the fraud in the origination paperwork, nor the fraud in the foreclosure paperwork, nor does it directly address the private packaging of RE mortgage packages - some US$ 2.5 Trillion totally outside, and mostly before, FMae and FMac.

It will, however, directly affect those cases. Once someone shows the fraud, and a decision is granted, the stampede for summary judgments will begin.

But, not to worry, Dan, most of those bad ARMs and subprimes were "covered" by PMI! And, then there are the truly real backstoppers - all those credit default swaps. Investment Banksters are such amazing creatures, aren't they, Dan.

So, what we might actually get is "certainty" -

"They did the crime, now they have to pay back The Dime".

(who was it that said that)

-------------

JGBellHimself

In your last question, you ask:

"Did banks really manage to execute a grand conspiracy, in unison, to defraud these companies by intentionally and deeply obscuring the truth?"

Ask we:

What part of the Wall Street mortgage banksters' US$ 2.5 Trillion in bad ARMs and subprime RE loans do you really not understand?

The "origination" of no-doc, no income, so-called "liar loans"? By Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia, New Century, etc.?

The "packaging" of those bad loans into "securitized" investments - knowing they were bad, and then betting that they would fail?

The selling of those "securitized" investment packages to insurance co's, private AND public pensions, and not just a few 401Ks of U.S. - earning for themselves huge salaries, bonuses, and perks - aka, wine (or straight malts), women (or men) and siren songs, all through the night.

The purchase of forged and fraudulent docs to "cover up" their gross negligence. The problem was NOT merely that they were "robo" signed - twas that they were false - and they KNEW they were false.

And, after doing all THAT - with private mortgage securities - they did it again, publicly, to FMae+FMac.

Of course, tis all China's fault!!!

When they told W that they wouldn't buy anymore RE securities from U.S., the House of Cards collapsed.

Who, now in Hell, asked 'em?

-------------

JGBellHimself

Dan, your question about the scope of this lawsuit is very good.

Hardly anyone is talking about this. Good on ya. What, precisely, are they suing about? IF it is only the narrow issue of the SEC "false statements" and/or fraud, the recovery might BE very narrow. Not GD likely.

However, IF they ask for "consequential damages", we enter into a brave new world. That would raise the question of how much in TOTAL "equity value" has been lost due to their fraud. And, that could extend, not only to the RE loans that they sold FMae&FMac, but to ALL of the RE loans made during the "dead years" in the sand states.

As you know the Wall Street investment banksters sold US$ 2.5 Trillion in RE loans to U.S. that have almost all gone bad. What that also did was destroy the home equity value of every single home around those bad RE loans.

While your lookin at FMae+FMac is great fun, maybe you should take a close(r) look at the Wall Street investment banksters' RE loan losses.

What is the current status of THAT little "game", Dan?

===============

5 Question Raised by the Government's Coming Mortgage Lawsuits

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/5-question-raised-by-the-governments-coming-mortgage-lawsuits/244488/

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Government Going After Banks for Shoddy Mortgage Securities

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/government-going-after-banks-for-shoddy-mortgage-securities/244503/

==============

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

LPS: Average Loan in Foreclosure Is Delinquent for Record 599 Days

[mEDITate-OR:
miss "the Game" that's goin on..., out there.
-------------
New delinquencies are down
foreclosures are about the same
and long-term delinquencies are huge.
They be play'n wid U.S.
-------------
in-foreclosure rate at 4.11% is barely below the peak rate of 4.21% in March 2011.
There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.16 million)
- and the average loan in foreclosure has been delinquent for a record 599 days!
-------------
what is happening is a large number of loans each month
have been moving from "in foreclosure" back to "90+ days delinquent" status
- so the number of loans "in foreclosure" hasn't increased recently.
-------------
the surge in shorter duration loans.
This is probably being driven by two factors:
1) older borrowers are hoping to pay off their loans as part of their retirement planning and are taking out 15 year mortgages, and
2) many jumbo borrowers are probably taking out 5 year loans with a balloon payment since 30 year jumbo rates are much higher.
----------
So, let's U.S. ask This Question:
Where are the loans located that are being moved back from "foreclosure" into "90+ days delinquent"
This matters, a lot.
Bcuz, if this is in states where foreclosures are selling to all cash investor buyers - like AZ and Nev
that might explain why the numbers of "foreclosure sales" appears to going down.
IF, however, this in the states where their are huge backlogs - such as Fla & NYC
that simply means that it will take them MUCH longer to work through the problem.
Very different pictures, very different results - on the ground.
------

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----------

===========
LPS: Average Loan in Foreclosure Is Delinquent for Record 599 Days
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/lps-average-loan-in-foreclosure-is.html
===========

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Case Shiller: in June

[mEDITate-OR:

cry yourself to sleep at nights...

Every single city in the CS cities chart is down from last year - except Atlanta, Ga.

Three Cal cities were getting better, are now getting worse - Frisco, LA and San Diego
- with SanD much worse.

Only One (1) city is above their peak low - Washington DC - Go Figure!

Oddly, LA is very close - explain that one, too.

So, almost every city has seen five (5) straight years of declining prices
AND they are now at their NEW peak bottom.

And

still falling.

----------

==========
Case Shiller: Home Prices increased in June
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/case-shiller-home-prices-increased-in.html
============

Saturday, August 6, 2011

For those who hate "economics", here is what you missed: Summary for Week ending August 5th

[mEDITate-OR:

think that you, too, can read all the news that anyone needs to know

about The Week in Economics...

by speed reading

Summary for Week ending August 5th

by Bill@CR

------

Of course, you can do that.

Not just, like you used Case Notes in law school, when you couldn't read the book

and

after using CliffsNotes literature notes and study guides to get through college classes

and

crib notes - written on the hand, arm, or legs to assist in cheating on quizzes and exams

-----------

Besides, wouldn't you really rather have

another drink of beer, or wine, or something stronger...

while you wait for your medical marijuana to be delivered

or grow up in the basement

and/or the attic, bcuz you like to be higher.

======

Summary for Week ending August 5th

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/summary-for-week-ending-august-5th.html

==========

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation May = Food stamp use rises to record 45.8 million + States pour money into Medicaid

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that tis a coincidence that the same week weak GDP is drastically revised - down
and
new jobless claim stay above 400K for 17 consecutive weeks, since the start of April
(so, it has been an April Fools Joke on all of U.S. - we assume)
that food stamp use drastically increases.
---------
This does NOT prove that those who have been dropped from the unemployment rolls are the ones now using food stamps to try to survive.
But, what would prove that to you?
-----
As "They" are screaming at you: "Let them drink tea!"
(or something like that)
------
And, as Jesus said to U.S.:
"What you do unto the least of these
you do unto me...
---------
(We assume that He preferred wine..., to tea
since they didn't grow tea in Nazareth)
[although, technically..., they say...
He could have "walked" to Ceylon to get some
or got tired, of walking, and justly created it]
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chart-state-spending-proposals.top.gif