Unofficial Problem Bank List over 800 Institutions

[mEDITate-OR:

follow the advice/instructions of our favourite Bar-tender-ass...

"Don't GO there."

This article IS ugly.

{which may explain the lack of a chart...

that c/w/should have been too ugly.}

Already there have been over 100 bank failures so far this year.

 

The Good News:

       We might NOT go over 200.

You're welcome.

======

Unofficial Problem Bank List over 800 Institutions

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/unofficial-problem-bank-list-over-800.html

=========

Personal Bankruptcy Filings up 9% in July

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why, if "they" did fix it, tis now even worse...

We all know about how BKs exploded, not just, before the new BK act eliminated all those "bad BKs".

So, explain this chart, and these new numbers.
Is what was fixed now broken, once more?
Or, is the problem simply very much worse?
Or, both.
===========
Remember: GO to the CR article for the LARGE charts
==========
This graph shows the non-business bankruptcy filings by quarter using monthly data from the ABI and previous quarterly data from USCourts.gov.

Excluding 2005, when the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005" was enacted (really a pro-lender act), the record year was in 2003 when 1.62 million personal bankruptcies were filed. This year will be close to that level.

=========

Personal Bankruptcy Filings up 9% in July

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-9-in.html

============

Negative Equity Breakdown - was that a pun + Existing Homes: Double Digit Months-of-Supply Watch

[mEDITate-OR:

say, as the Brits do, about a very good shot...

"Well played, you Ba....!"

These CR charts are stunning.

They were prepared from data from Yale Prof Shiller

- yes, THAT Shiller, as in Case-Shiller

Not just, but they show U.S. how dramatic this collapse was, is and will be, for quite some time.

"They" tell U.S. that The Truth will set U.S. free...

"Well...", as RonnieR used to tell U.S. that might be true...

if we all, not just, walk away from our underwater homes and economy.

It's not just, only Ugly.

=========
Remember: Go to the CR web site for the LARGE charts
=========
Here is some data from a recent congressional briefing by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Economy.com, and Yale Professor Robert Shiller.
A few key points, as of Q1 2010:
There is almost $2.4 trillion mortgage debt for homes in negative equity.
The total negative equity is $771 billion.
There are 4.1 million homeowners with more than 50% negative equity
(they owe 50%+ more than their homes are worth).

----------------

The second graph shows the number of homeowners in negative equity, by the percent of negative equity. 

There are 4.1 million homeowners with more than 50% negative equity, and another 5 million homeowners with 20% to 50% negative equity.

If prices fall 5%, the columns will essentially shift one to the left (ignoring remedies), and there will be 10.2 million homeowners with 20% or more negative equity.

-----------
The third graph shows the percent of homeowners with mortgages in negative equity for 33 states

This is shown in three categories:

If you look at Nevada, 17.0% of homeowners (with mortgages) are more than 50% underwater, and another 35.2% are 20% to 50% underwater. These are the homeowners most at risk for foreclosure.

-----------

This graph shows the 'months-of-supply' metric.

The NAR reported that the months-of-supply increased to 8.9 months in June.

Since we know sales collapsed in July (based on pending home sales and other reports), and using Lawler's estimate for the level of inventory, we can calculate how far sales would have had to fall in July to hit double digits months-of-supply:

For: Months of Supply	Then: July Sales (millions, SAAR)
10	4.85
11	4.40
12	4.04

For 12 months of supply, the sales rate (SAAR) would equal inventory.
=========

Negative Equity Breakdown
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/negative-equity-breakdown.html
Existing Homes: Double Digit Months-of-Supply Watch
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/existing-homes-double-digit-months-of.html
=========

Faux Business' Stuart Varney ludicrously lauds Bush economic record, slams Obama's

[mEDITate-OR:

remember not to tell me what is really true...

only what we think, or want to think, is true.

So..., my Republican friends (or are you now ex-friends) take a REAL hard look at The Truth.

Said a faux commentator Varney:

"President Bush fixed the financial panic,"

while the "economy fell off a cliff on President Obama's watch"

Varney, you now stand corrected.

Independently.

============

NBER: Recession began in December 2007, more than a year before Obama's presidency began

NBER: Economic activity began to decline in December 2007. The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on December 1, 2008, that based on "economy-wide measures of economic activity," including domestic production and employment, the recession began in December 2007.

Economic indicators show the economy has dramatically improved under the Obama administration 

Real GDP has greatly increased during Obama's presidency. As the graph (taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis data) below indicates, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) tumbled in the last two quarters of Bush's presidency and the first two quarters of Obama's. It has increased steadily through the last four quarters:

-------------

After steadily increasing in 2008, new jobless numbers have dropped significantly in the time since Obama took office. As data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show, new jobless numbers increased in seven of the last eight months of Bush's term, from just under 200,000 jobs lost June of 2008 to around 800,000 lost in January 2009. The data show that in the time since President Obama took office, new jobless claims have significantly decreased, and, beginning in November 2009, there has been a net increase in employment.

------------

After falling "off a cliff" in October 2008, the stock market rebounded following the passage of Obama's stimulus plan. In the fall of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) nosedived, dropping 2937.25 points in just two weeks (September 26 to October 10). The Dow continued its downward trend through March 6, 2009, when it bottomed out at 6626.94 points, two weeks after President Obama signed the stimulus bill into law. Since then, the DJI has steadily increased, gaining 26.6 percent in the time since Obama took office, and 33.5 percent since the stimulus was enacted (as of 11:21 am ET on July 30).

=========
Varney ludicrously lauds Bush economic record, slams Obama's
http://mediamatters.org/research/201007300027
========

In graphics: Eurozone in crisis

[mEDITate-OR:
see that what was in your past may be 'incoming' for your future...

These very interesting maps/charts/data are from the BBC.
{Go there & see the LARGE images}

And, as they say, and you can see, "all the pigs are not equal"

This may not seem/appear relevant to you..., now...
however, China has taken notice.
Europe is NOW a larger trading partner with China than U.S.
with the EURO in trouble China stalled un-pegging the Yuan.

What other reports today tell U.S. is that China's manufacturing sector is declining - probably due in part to the decline in exports to Europe. But, China is seeing a manufacturing recovery. That is very good news - for them and for U.S.

Ah so..., while you were not looking, things started to bet better - in Europe & China.
"Where does that leave U.S.?", you might - economically - ask.
----------

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--------


=========
In graphics: Eurozone in crisis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10150007
==========

China says it tops Japan as No. 2 economy + Investing in the world's best balance sheets

[mEDITate-OR:

think that the Rising Sun ain't rising no mo'

Bcuz, while Japan did shrink last year, in the last few months it has been expanding, again.

Far more important is the obvious fact that China has grown by Great Leaps Forward, and out of most bounds. While we founder in the doldrums, their ship is riding high, heading out into the world, and loaded with "Goodies" for U.S. and the Europeans.

However, they/China would like U.S. to get our House in order, so we c/w/should buy more "stuff" from them.
=============

========
China says it tops Japan as No. 2 economy
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/news/international/china_japan_economy/index.htm
==========
Investing in the world's best balance sheets
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/28/pf/emerging_markets_debt.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2010072909
=========

U.S. recovery sputters + Consumers not spending like drunken sailors + Obama's consumer confidence problem

[mEDITate-OR:

or miss the CNN trifecta...

What CNN is showing U.S. is that the reason we are not spending like drunken sailors is that we are caught in the doldrums..., and are not going anywhere.

Not falling where we cannot get up, is good.

Falling a little bit more each year for years, is not good.

Like those who have taken too many antibiotics, and now they don't work for you anymore...

We appear to think we have taken too many "economic stimulants", and don't what to take them anymore.

This is NOT good.

That is exactly the same mistake FDR made in the middle of the Great Depression - he quit doing beneficial things FAR to early. IF we make THAT mistake we will pay for it for decades - maybe, if China continues, forever.

Much too ugly.

More than it should be.

==============

------------

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============
U.S. recovery sputters
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2010073012
--------------
Consumers not spending like drunken sailors
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
-----------
Obama's consumer confidence problem;
American consumers are looking at Washington, and they don't like what they see 
http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/30/obamas-consumer-confidence-problem/
============

Don’t Give the Tax Credit Too Much Credit + Or not enough

[mEDITate-OR:

hold your piece...

==========

JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 4:22 pm

Prof Casey @ the bat: what simple-ton-of statistics are YOU looking at?

Prior to the First Time Home Buyers tax credit, and after the collapse of Wall Streets "securitizations" - mis-named? - home loans, FMae&FMac were issuing over 85% of all the RE home loans to U.S. @ 20% down.

Under the two tax credit programs over 80% of all the programs RE loans were issued by FHA as low down payment (3%) Federally insured RE loans to brand NEW home buyers. EXPEDITED = ?, PERSPECTIVE-indicted = "to charge with a fault or offense : criticize, accuse".

Have YOU ever heard a RE agent tell you that you better make an offer, bcuz there are so many "pending offers" that you might not get the house? And you think that all those non-lookieloos did NOT have any impact on the RE market? What planet are you from? The Twilight Zone planet with "The Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

In AZ we saw a huge increase in new home construction, in REO listings AND in upper priced home listings - ALL testing the market. Casey, the dog DID bark.

For you to even TRY to compare the non-existent RE market of today, to the very interesting RE market created by the tax credit programS, is like comparing an affair with being married - you are comparing sour apples with cherries. (Or, something like that.)

---------------

JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 5:32 pm

Let's let our hair hang down:

Said you: "That’s why I expect little, if any, housing price reduction after the credit expires."

Said we: In AZ immediately prior to the expiration, we had the largest number of the largest sized listing price reductions anywhere in U.S. New home builders, "underwater" home owners AND people who needed to move to find/get a new job, tried to "buy" a buyer.

Immediately AFTER the expiration, we in AZ had an even larger number of even larger listing price reductions! The "effective" sales price AFTER the tax credit program is lower than under it. Those who would have LIKED to sell, but could not, are withdrawing from the RE market = the quitters !!!. Those who NEED to sell, are now even more desperately trying to "buy" a buyer.

IF you compare AZ with Cal, Nev and Fla, you WILL see that AZ is better off than they are. True, the least expensive/costs homes appear to have bottomed out. BUTT, of the joke, the more expensive homes are dropping like a rock!

IF you believe that housing prices will not fall, drastically, farther; you are dumber than the brick that will fall on your head - Res ipsa loquitur.

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JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 7:01 pm

Prof Casey, are you giving/showing U.S. a "mulligan":

Said you: "the $19 billion in first-time home buyer tax credits amounts to about one-tenth of 1 percent"

Said we: There is little or no condo financing, and hasn't been for over two years. Similarly, Jumbo RE loans. Foreclosures and short sales AND strategic defaults have been over 50% of the total RE market, and not just in the sand states.

So permit/forgive U.S. to ask THIS "nice" - what we call them in the law - question: "What percentage of all non-distressed "closed" RE transactions, over the last six (6) month - aka, this year - were tax credit generated?

PPPsss: Are you REALLY still @ the UofChicanery Econ Dept? MOG, how jealous ARE "Those People" like you, with all those Govt jobs going to that GD Harvard, and "can't even wag their tail" Yale? If/since you voted for Obama, are YOU ever Chicago pizza-ed!

==========
Don’t Give the Tax Credit Too Much Credit
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/dont-give-the-tax-credit-too-much-credit/
========

Debating the Securitization of Mortgages

[mEDITate-OR:

not remember that in college we were a "master debater"...

{or something like that}

===========

JGBHimself  Mesa, Az  July 28th, 2010  2:10 pm

Rather that take an "argumentative" position, what our dear Prof/Mr. Ed, aka The Glaseser, has shown U.S. is that he is an even handed economist. Having participated in espousing both sides, he assumes that both have some, if not equal, merit. MOG, would would we DO without "on the other hand" economists like him. (and, no, that is not a question)

What Prof/Mr Ed forgot to mention - why we do not know - was/is the established fact that Wall Street's securitization machine, prior to 04 when they were getting started packaged almost exclusively prime RE mortgages, and AFTER 04 through 07 when they imploded packaged their RE mortgages consisting of almost 75% subprime & ARM loans. The packages prior to 04 were rated exactly the same as the packages AFTER 04. Why? Who did that? How much DID they make off U.S. in those sweetheart deals?

Mr Ed..., talk to U.S., and tell U.S. for once The Truth about what did, and should not have, happened.

Prof Ed, you remind me of a law school prof, an obnoxious immigrant from Texas - yes, we do know that is redundant - who announced that we were "Flat Out Wrong", but when we pointed out to him that HIS assumed facts were not in fact the facts of the case; and that IF we applied The Law of the case to The Facts of the real case presented we appeared to be correct, replied: "You have a good point." Like you?, he went on to rape & pillage someone else.

Oh, and Mr Ed, on balance, your article was a lot better than most. You're welcome.

-----------

JGBHimself  Mesa, Az  July 28th, 2010 2:50 pm

Prof Ed, please let me clarify something.

When we pointed out the fact that The Securitization Machine switched from prime to subprime & ARM loans, we did not mention for your benefit: a) those were the "dead" years, aka the "underwater years", 02 to 07; b) most were made in the sand states = Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ; c) most were made by Countrywide/BoA, WAMU/Chase, Wichovia/Wells and New Century/BK; d) the largest "servicers" banks of both non-agency securitized packages AND FMae&FMac RE loans are those same three Big Bailed Out Banks; e) as in a failing grade, almost 80% of those same bad RE loans are now in default status = multi-months behind in payments, strategic defaults and/or foreclosures - completed & pending.

In the last two years more than 50% of ALL foreclosures of U.S., AND more than 50% of all "underwater" RE loans, have been/are in those same sand states, and of those same bad RE loans. 

During those "dead years", Wall Street issued over 50% of ALL of the RE loans made to U.S. as "private" securitiztion packages. When they collapsed in Jan 08, FMae&FMac then issued 85+% of all RE loans to U.S. In July 08 your President - W, The (aka, your) Republican - "nationalized" both FMae&FMac.  What's up with that?

Today, FHA, not be confused with FMaeOrFMac, issued over 80% of RE loans to the first time home buyers under the Buyers Tax Credit programS - as low down payment Federally insured loans.

What you actually got, is not what you think you see. (or something like that)

============

Debating the Securitization of Mortgages
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/27/debating-the-securitization-of-mortgages/?src=busln#preview
=========

Halfway through 2010, the Year of the Short Sale Hits Some Serious Snags

[mEDITate-OR:
think all the Pigs are equal...
Not only is Miami full of vice..., but they are down the tubes, too.
However, what "They" are NOT telling U.S. is that while most of the bad loans were made IN Miami, they were NOT made in Los Angeles. Near there, yes; IN there, no.
------------

----------

===========
Halfway through 2010
the Year of the Short Sale Hits Some Serious Snags
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/07/halfway-through-2010-the-year-of-the-short-sale-hits-some-serious-snags
============

Case-Shiller, deja vu

[mEDITate-OR:
like to see all that money being made in real estate...

The first chart is a different way to look at Case-Shiller this month.

The second chart is a different way to express your political opinion.
Like it, even if it is flat out wrong.
---------

--------

==========

Falling Home Sales: Are There Just Too Many Houses Out There?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Kit has lost it..., bcuz he taint...

These are two more "argumentative" charts, by Kit Menkin.
What he is trying to tell U.S. is that we built too many homes...
then the unemployment, then the foreclosures, then everything stopped.

IF Kit is not too Far Right (pun intended)
we might be waiting 10 years for this oversupply to be sold off.
----------

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-------------

===========
Falling Home Sales:
Are There Just Too Many Houses Out There?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216541-falling-home-sales-are-there-just-too-many-houses-out-there?source=email
============

Household Net Worth: Back to the 'Old Normal'

[mEDITate-OR:
value yourself at what you are really worth...

as opposed to what you would like to think you are...

This is an "argumentative" chart...
probably true, but...
What it suggests/argues is that we are not in Kansas anymore...
and have fallen back to earth.
---------------

===========
Household Net Worth: Back to the 'Old Normal'
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216616-household-net-worth-back-to-the-old-normal?source=email
==========

May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller: Government-Sponsored Boost Continues

[mEDITate-OR:

not know where to start looking...

This is a VERY good article about the new Case-Shiller report for May.
The charts are quite different than most, and also are very interesting.
------
Remember: like CR, go to the article for the LARGE version of the charts.
-----

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============
May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller:
Government-Sponsored Boost Continues
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216691-may-2010-s-p-case-shiller-government-sponsored-boost-continues
===========

New Home Sales: Worst June on Record

[mEDITate-OR:

not even know how pessimistic you ought -

morally, economically, politically, legally, and mentally...

to be..., or not to be....

that is the question.

We did think that WE were The Real Pessimist...

little did we know...!!!

--------------

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2010.

In June 2010, 30 thousand new homes were sold (NSA).

This is a new record low for June.

The previous record low for the month of June was 34 thousand in 1982

-----------

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years.

---------------

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

------------

The final graph shows new home inventory. 

=============

Monday, July 26, 2010

New Home Sales: Worst June on Record

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/new-home-sales-worst-june-on-record.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
============