Negative Equity Breakdown - was that a pun + Existing Homes: Double Digit Months-of-Supply Watch

[mEDITate-OR:

say, as the Brits do, about a very good shot...

"Well played, you Ba....!"

These CR charts are stunning.

They were prepared from data from Yale Prof Shiller

- yes, THAT Shiller, as in Case-Shiller

Not just, but they show U.S. how dramatic this collapse was, is and will be, for quite some time.

"They" tell U.S. that The Truth will set U.S. free...

"Well...", as RonnieR used to tell U.S. that might be true...

if we all, not just, walk away from our underwater homes and economy.

It's not just, only Ugly.

=========
Remember: Go to the CR web site for the LARGE charts
=========
Here is some data from a recent congressional briefing by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Economy.com, and Yale Professor Robert Shiller.
A few key points, as of Q1 2010:
There is almost $2.4 trillion mortgage debt for homes in negative equity.
The total negative equity is $771 billion.
There are 4.1 million homeowners with more than 50% negative equity
(they owe 50%+ more than their homes are worth).

----------------

The second graph shows the number of homeowners in negative equity, by the percent of negative equity. 

There are 4.1 million homeowners with more than 50% negative equity, and another 5 million homeowners with 20% to 50% negative equity.

If prices fall 5%, the columns will essentially shift one to the left (ignoring remedies), and there will be 10.2 million homeowners with 20% or more negative equity.

-----------
The third graph shows the percent of homeowners with mortgages in negative equity for 33 states

This is shown in three categories:

If you look at Nevada, 17.0% of homeowners (with mortgages) are more than 50% underwater, and another 35.2% are 20% to 50% underwater. These are the homeowners most at risk for foreclosure.

-----------

This graph shows the 'months-of-supply' metric.

The NAR reported that the months-of-supply increased to 8.9 months in June.

Since we know sales collapsed in July (based on pending home sales and other reports), and using Lawler's estimate for the level of inventory, we can calculate how far sales would have had to fall in July to hit double digits months-of-supply:

For: Months of Supply	Then: July Sales (millions, SAAR)
10	4.85
11	4.40
12	4.04

For 12 months of supply, the sales rate (SAAR) would equal inventory.
=========

Negative Equity Breakdown
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/negative-equity-breakdown.html
Existing Homes: Double Digit Months-of-Supply Watch
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/existing-homes-double-digit-months-of.html
=========