Correlating U.S. Demographics, Trade Deficits and Employment

[mEDITate-OR:


--------
John's Conclusion
The U.S. has been on a consumption binge.
The examination discussed here indicates that the country has been living beyond its means to produce what it consumes. That doesn't even consider that we have to import more than half of the energy used. If the production of even part of the production of goods that have been imported over the lat 14 years had been retained domestically, there would not have been enough labor available to fill the jobs that would have been required.
So the U.S. has been living beyond its means in three ways:
1 - Beyond its means to provide energy used;
2 - Beyond its means to pay; and
3 - Beyond its means to produce what it consumes.
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=====
Correlating U.S. Demographics, Trade Deficits and Employment
http://seekingalpha.com/article/253948-correlating-u-s-demographics-trade-deficits-and-employment
======

Getting Real aboot (Can) "Real" Household Income

[mEDITate-OR:
think what you think you are supposed to think...
when The Facts don't support that.
-------
The following analysis is from John Lounsbury, and provides U.S. with a very interesting view of: when we were much better off, and now, when we are not.
Howsomever, what John admits is that he cannot see The Why of It.
Eliminate the Baby Boomers, eliminate RonnieR and Little Willie Clinton, eliminate woemen (theoretically, of course) and what are "we left" with...?
Tis too Far Right to blame it all on W...!!!
And that's true even if/since he really deserves it.
------
However, there are some parsings that need to be considered:
FIRST, when woemen left home to work did not occur at the same time as the rise in single parent homes. So, adding a 2nd income would substantially increase "household" incomes, and divorces would substantially decrease them. But, when? And, by how much?
SECOND, the decline in high(er) paying "labor union" jobs may have been offset by the dot.com bubble; but NAFTA exported them. We need to factor in precisely when that happened.
THIRD, just after 9-11 the "war economy" - using Gulf Oil states loans to U.S. - did not appear to create many high income jobs; but the 02-06 housing bubble - using Chinese loans to U.S. - obviously did. When that bubble burst the economy tanked.
---------
Said/asked Humpty:
"This is really Dumpty. Can no body put U.S. back together again?"
(or something like that)
-----------
John's Conclusion
We still have a mystery not explained about why the “golden years” for real household income occurred when and how they did.
Until more data is examined we will have to listen to Republicans talk about the genius of Reagan and the Democrats about the acumen of Clinton.
-------------

-------------
There are really three periods of unique behavior for real median household income: 
1967-1982
1983-1999 and
2000 -2011.
This quite evident in the following graph:

-----------
Number of Married Women Working
In the following graph we see that the number of married women working was growing much faster than married men.

---------
The fact that a disproportionate increase in the number of women working was not a factor is seen in the following graph, where the ratio of married men to married women working has been plotted.

----------
Another factor that should be looked at is the increase in the number of unmarried couples forming households in the past twenty years or so.
That would also increase household income for what were formerly two households have become one and do not show up in the data for married men and women.
Employment Population Ratio
something that we would expect to be affected by the baby boom bubble
but, the baby boomers are all in the over-twenty population by 1984.

And the baby boom cannot explain why real household income has dropped so much in the years since 2000.  The first baby boomers only reached age 65 this year.
It is clear that the baby boomers probably helped boost the population participation rate, but...
most of the baby boomers were in the work force by the mid 1980s.
=========
Real  Household Income
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14397
=======

U.S. Birth Rate and Per Capita Income Down + In a Down Economy, Fewer Births + The New Demography of American Motherhood

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the change..., in life....
more college educated mothers...
less teen aged, more older woemen
and
more foreign born mothers.
------
If we were not outnumbered before...
we are now and will be even more so...

----------
And, 40% of Those People are unmarried...
if they didn't need U.S., they wouldn't want U.S. around.
And, they probably do not anyway.

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======
U.S. Birth Rate and Per Capita Income Down
http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2011/10/14/u-s-birth-rate-down
--------------
In a Down Economy, Fewer Births
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/10/12/in-a-down-economy-fewer-births/
------------
The New Demography of American Motherhood
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/05/06/the-new-demography-of-american-motherhood/
=======

Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the Devil...
in the details...
----------

JGBHimself says:

9 October 2011 at 1:52 am

First, Steven, this is the only serious discussion of the effects of student loans on this months numbers we have seen, and we have looked. Well done.

Second, there is another data set you might want to incorporate into these charts, namely the use of debit cards as opposed to credit cards.

True, this is skewered (sp?) by the swipe fee problems, but the huge increase in the use of debit cards and/or cash to pay for consumer goods and services is directly connected to the measurement of the deleveraging by some or most of U.S.

However, IF an increase in the use of "credit cards" is matched by a decrease in "debit card" use, then there may not really BE an increase in "credit", but only a change in the way we are paying for "stuff", from China, at Walmart, this month.

Like you, we have watched the decline in credit card balances, to attempt to see if that was caused by a decline in use, OR was caused by card cancellations and write offs. What we, too, watched was the huge shift to using debit cards.

What many of U.S. figured out was that using debit or cash eliminated all "late" and "overdraft" fees. Given the fact that the Big Bad Banksters make more money off those fees than they do off the interest that they charge, possibly WE are the real cause of all their financial problems:)

We "swiped" their fees; and now the evil empire is "swiping" back

------------

==========
Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14184
=============

Phoenix Home Price Index by Price Level

[mEDITate-OR:
think that all AZ's are equal...
-------
As John Wake points out this IS fascinating.
The two highest priced tiers stopped climbing earlier than the bottom tier.
AND, the bottom tier not only topped out higher
but, then dropped the most.
------
What is also interesting is that the middle tier dropped less than the highest tier.
However, we MUST remember that this is Case-Shiller a repeat sales index
which means the foreclosures had a HUGE impact on the lowest tier.
And, that the sales of mid and higher tiers have collapsed.
No sales means NO records in CS to view.
---------
Tier Breakpoints (July 2011)
Low Tier – Up to $94,859
Middle Tier – $94,859 – $167,547
High Tier – $167,547 and up
------------

==========
Phoenix Home Price Index by Price Level
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2011/10/06/phoenix-home-price-index-by-price-level/
======

Consumer borrowing dropped $9.5 billion in August + Contracts Due to Student Loans

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that "The Headlines" are telling you The Truth
-----------
However, as EconIntersecs points out...
Student Loans were MUCH lower than before.
----------
It is student loans which distort the analysis as they grew ONLY 55% year-over-year this month
– down from a 70% annual growth last month.
Student loans this month were over 14% of total credit
– and accounted for one-half of consumer credit growth.
In some previous months, it has been literally the entire growth of consumer credit
---------
Why? What Happened?
-------------

--------------

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===========

Consumer borrowing dropped $9.5 billion in August

largest amount since April 2010 

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/07/ap/business/main20117389.shtml

----------------

August 2011 Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14184

===========

Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected + Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that the vacancies almost equal the loss in population/jobs

---------

What is also interesting is that

this year the job gains are equal to 4.78%

and

next year equal to 9.23%

of the prior three years losses.

Or in two years AZ will recover 14.0% of the prior three years losses.

-------------
In the next two years AZ will gain back less than were lost last year in 2011.
---------

In numbers 15,500 + 29,900 = 45,400

Losses were 324,000

Therefore we are still down by over 300,000

- IF you add in population growth.

--------

Translated = If we grow by this years rate it will take over 20 years to recover

But, if we grow by next years projection, it might take only 10 years

---------------

Almost 14 percent of all homes are empty in Maricopa County

227,696 single-family homes, condominiums and apartments were empty

Tucson has about 230,000 housing units.

So Maricopa County's vacancies are the equivalent to an empty city the size of Tucson.

Maricopa County's population grew 24 percent

while its housing stock grew 31 percent.

In 2009..., Phoenix had more than 100,000 houses built in 2004-06 still sitting empty.

----------------

Statewide, housing units increased 30 percent from 2000 to 2010.

The state's population grew 25 percent during the same time.

---------------

Clark County, home to Las Vegas, actually had a higher vacancy rate of 14.9 percent.

But it is not among the nation's 10 most-populous counties.

==============

The state lost has 324,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007

Arizona employers are expected to add more jobs than they cut in 2011

- the first year that has happened since 2007

Arizona is expected to gain 15,500 non-farm jobs in 2011, compared with last year

In 2012, the state is projected to gain 29,900 jobs over 2011

in Arizona's health care and private-education industries

projected to see 4.5 percent growth in 2011, adding 15,400 jobs,

and another 3.6 percent bump in 2012, up 12,900 jobs

============
Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/10/07/20111007maricopa-county-tops-home-vacancies-list.html
---------------
Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/10/06/20111006biz-arizona-jobs-forecast-worse-than-projected-brk06-ON.html
==========

CoreLogic = Shadow inventory declines to five-month supply + Existing Home Shadow Inventory Declines to 1.6 million units

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where all those empty homes went to...
except for the ones they forgot to empty.
------------
Good Morning, CoreLogic

This months September 27, 2011 CoreLogic Reports Shadow Inventory Continues to Decline

is once again, very interesting.

However, we note some things that are what we call "a puzzlement".

For example;

When we view your months supply chart, we see that IF

we compare that last three January and July numbers we see that they are very similar.

True, the Jan 10 number of months is the highest, but the Jan 09 and 11 months appear to be about the same level

Is that truly the case?

When we look at what happened AFTER July, in 09 and 10 there was a Steep increase to the next Jan

Is there any reason to believe that will not happen this year?

We expect those answer to be both "yes".

When we view your total inventory chart, once again 09 appears to be very similar to 11

with a slight decline in REO inventory, but an increase in pending FC inventory.

so that IF the banksters move more FC inventory into REO inventory we would be almost identical.

Two very serious questions:

First, BoA has recently increase their West Coast NOTS by 116%, more than double.

In, of all places, the sand states of Cal, Nev and AZ (with WA & Ore thrown in)

The question is, of course, does your FC inventory include ALL of those BoA filings?

Or will you be adding them later?

Second, there is a HUGE controversy about Arid-zone-Ahh.

Some argue, using your reports, that all three of the categories you show U.S. are almost gone in AZ.

Some do not believe that is necessarily true.

So, CoreLogic, can you ask The Putative Economist

aka, One (1) Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic

to tell U.S. if HE knows? What the numbers really are in AZ?

And, can he show U.S. that Az is almost empty?

Well, of immigrants, true; but...

of any and all "shadow inventory" ??

IF this is already shown somewhere, tell me were to go...

to find it.

---------------

---------

=========
Shadow inventory declines to five-month supply: CoreLogic
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/09/27/shadow-inventory-declines-to-five-month-supply-corelogic
---------------
Shadow Inventory in U.S. Continues to Decline in July
Supply Falls to 1.6 Million Units
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/shadow-inventory-residential-foreclosures-corelogic-multiple-listing-services-mls-listings-unsold-homes-distressed-sales-reo-properties-for-sale-4819.php
--------
CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory Declines to 1.6 million units
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/corelogic-existing-home-shadow.html
==========

[mEDITate-OR:

as JGBell

Wrote on Sun, 9/4/2011 - 10:42 am

Bill, fascinating, as ever. However, there is another view of this data that most of U.S. need, that is not shown here.

First, as you are only too well aware, there have been a few layoffs. Some argue that a huge number of U.S. have not only lost our jobs, but have taken "early SS retirement". And, possibly many have delayed taking SS retirement at 65, for economic reasons.

But, your 'time lines" not only do not show U.S. that, they blur the possible impacts.

The first group is not really 55 to 60, but 55 up to 62. The second group are those from 62 up to 65. The third group is after 65 until 71. And, the fourth group is 72 on.

Group 1 cannot retire, and if long term unemployed, they are skewered (sp?). Group 2 can take early retirement, at a cost, but ARE they? Group 3 are those @, or for the non-numeric, AT their current retirement age. They can "retire" with full benefits, but ARE they? Or, are they staying bcuz of economic reasons - either bcuz they need more income, OR that they do not need the money and can wait to get the yearly increases? Group 4 is at the age where they get what they get - no more, no less, unless they die.

What MATTERS to the rest of U.S. is what is really happening to those who can NOT retire early, and have lost their jobs? What is really happening to those who CAN take early retirement - did they? Stop paying in, and begin collecting? And, what is really happening to those who could get full benefits? Do they need to keep working, and are they?

IF you do not show that to U.S., how are the rest of U.S. to know?

IF you cannot be bothered (that was unforgivable, was it not)

can you tell at least one of U.S. where to find the accurate numbers?

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=========
CR Update: Labor Force Participation Rate by Age
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/update-labor-force-participation-rate.html
=======

Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that they have thought of everything....
and fully accounted for it.
Much like our US$ in Afghanistan.
-------------

JGBHimself says:

3 September 2011 at 11:28 pm

Setting aside the fact that we find you, and almost all of your postings, to be far superior to almost everything else we read, we were shocked, absolutely SHOCKED, to see you feeling sorry for yourself, when you said: "But it just makes you mad when money is wasted on an ineffective stimulus – and it clouds your ability to trend the data."

You po' baby. Yo' "models" didn't work they way you thought they would!!!

Brings tears to my eyes.

No - not that your models didn't work; but that you totally missed what did NOT happen - aka, the dog didn't bark.

Steve, let's - you, me and U.S. - try to get serious. Well, for the moment.

What if W had NOT "nationalized" FMae&FMac, who were at the time doing over 85% of ALL loans made to U.S.? What IF China's US$ 35 Billion a month subsidy of home loans had NOT been replaced by the FED/Treasury? What IF the total RE market had collapsed/frozen and there were NO home loans made at any price to any of U.S.?

Have you modeled/analyzed THIS one?

How many of the outstanding/overhanging inventory of new construction homes were sold to "brand new home buyers tax credit" purchasers? Do you know? Who would have bought them, if they had not? Anybody? What if that "absolutely NOT 'hidden' inventory" still existed?

How many more builders, subs N supplier, local bank construction lenders - RE agents, escrows, title cos, mortgage brokers, et al, et ux - would have been totally wiped out?

Have you modeled/analyzed THAT one?

True, home builders would have had even more & larger losses to write off under their new IRS rules. Steve, do you have ANY idea how much THAT little chunk of change is?

JMC, we might have a balanced budget today if we had not given that money away.

(and, yes, Steve, that is, and is not, a joke)

What even your own charts show U.S. is that post hoc, ergo propter hoc - AFTER the "nationalization" and the Buyer's tax credits, the steep decline stopped.

Permanently, of course not. But, for you to assume that "nothing much happened", other than them messing with Yo' charts, is very much in horror (sp?).

Tis, in fact, The Fact that they DID mess up "your charts" that we are not in a full depression. And, yes, we do know that is "argumentative". Prove me wrong.

Even more to the point, and we are seriously complementary here, can you use your "charts" to show U.S. what w/c/should not have happened IF they had done nothing?

To argue that nothing was changed, you are obligated to show U.S. what would have occurred if nothing had happened.

Tis like being in college, once again; and saying that since wearing a condom was proven to prevent your being able to "feel everything on your Far Right side", that if only you had NOT worn one, nothing significantly bad would ever have happened.

Non post hoc, ergo propter non hoc.

(or something like that:)

----------

==========
Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=12598
===========

On The Margin: Total Unemployment July + Envisioning Employment Aug+ Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration Aug + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August

[mEDITate-OR:
be oblivious to the striking differences between Bill@CR and Dan@Atlantic
and Over the Top @ PE.
Each has a very, often unique view of the same data
and that each gives U.S. very different insights.
---------
OtTop looks more at the total picture...
favoring U-6 data over the very narrow U-3
and
as you will see in the post below
the Food Stamp consequences of "being unemployed".
-------
This does NOT mean that Bill@CR does not see the seriousness of our little predicament...
you only have to read his comments in his articles this month to see that...
but, he is trying very hard to BE objective with his charts.
------
Dan@Atlantic points to his own point of view, with is usually very accurate.
----------
OtTop is a wee skoshi bit more opinionated.
Not at all wrong, but much more pointed.
One might call him "more colorful"...
might one not!
-------------------

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==========
On The Margin: Total Unemployment July 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-margin-total-unemployment-july-2011.html
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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
------------
Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/envisioning-employment-employment.html
========

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
forget the 2nd rule of The Law:
IF you DO know the answer to The Question...
and do NOT want to hear it...
be GD sure that you do not ask it.
----------
or...
ask yourselves:
What would Jesus do...
about the least of these?
-----------
Over the Top @ PE
provides U.S. with this unique view.
No body else talks, or shows U.S. about These People.
--------
The Good News is...
that even if they ARE Christians...
they cannot buy wine.
So, all those Catholic Mexicans, in Arid-zone-Ah
are being forced to attend Communion.
---------

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=========
On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation-june.html
========

Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes + Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that we are all in this together...
and NOT
understand that inequality does not end with CEO's salaries.
---------
Setting aside the very real question of whether or not it still makes any economic sense to "buy" an education in this economy...
the issue remains is what is happening to you if you DOo have one, and what if you do NOT.
-----
later we will post PE-Over the Top's charts on these issues
but, see what Bill@CR is telling U.S...:
Good people, who finished HS and went to work "In Detroit", etc, are now "expendable".
And, they have absolutely NO where to go.
---------
Obama may need to go back to Church - the old one.
Then, he may SEE the level of desperation in the Black Male community.
----
Do you find it as odd as we do...
that the White Male-Tea Party community - and it IS a community of think alikes - all believe that They are much worse off than the Blacks are.
Or, maybe they could give a Shiite less about The Blacks...
and now see that the Mexicans are really doing to 'em...
what the Blacks were trying to do.
-------
Of course, this has absolutely NOTHING to do with college football or basketball.
We did NOT ask you whether or not ANY Southern university sports team c/w/should win..., without a majority of Black athletes.
---------

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===========
Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/duration-of-unemployment-unemployment.html
-------------
Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/employment-summary-part-time-workers.html
=======

CR = August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate

[mEDITate-OR:
pretend that this is NOT abnormal...!
-----------
While we usually post CR's charts fit to this blog
these two "beginning" chart NEED to be seen as they are.
--------
Bill@ CR was one of the first to point out that the "Participation Rate" had severely shrunk.
This 1st chart is his new view of unemployment seen through the prism of Participation.
Great work, once again.
-----------
The 2nd chart is his unique view of how bad this really is.
Only Ms C at Economix-NYT regularly shows U.S. this absolute disaster.
-----------
Enjoy, you Devil, you.
------------

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=========
CR =
August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/august-employment-report-0-jobs.html
=========