[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the VERY mixed messages...:
Some newspapers use the changes from the prior month to write their headlines.
Some newspapers use the changes from the prior quarter to write their headlines.
Some newspapers use the changes from the prior year to write their headlines.
Some use the "national" changes to tell U.S what happened last month.
Some actually tell U.S. what happened in THEIR state to tell U.S. what happened.
So..., if you, too, are confused by what you read, welcome to the USofA.
In no small part the problem is the fact that the type of home being sold now are VERY different from what was being sold last fall, under the prior Buyer Tax Credit Program, and from the homes being sold last year under the massive pressure downwards of the increase in foreclosures.
What is also obvious is that the home that will be sold over the next year will be a totally different RE market than this one - the end of Buyer Tax Credits, the shift from foreclosures to short sales and strategic defaults, and the shift from the lowest priced homes to much higher priced ones being offered for sale.
Remember the "sport advice" = "If you are being tackled as you are trying to run towards second base, you might be in the right ball park..., but you are playing in the wrong, or in a quite different, game!!!"
To understand what has just been..., tells U.S. nothing about what is going to happen to U.S. now.
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In March, home prices fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index measuring price moves in 20 US cities.
Not seasonally adjusted, the 20-city composite index has now fallen six months in a row.
Even adjusting for seasonal variance, home prices fell1.9 percent from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, according to a release from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
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1. Two consecutive monthly increases in February home prices (0.71% for the Composite-20) and March (2.42% for the Composite-20), following 37 consecutive monthly declines in the home price index.
2. The February and March increases were the first two consecutive monthly gains in home prices since November and December 2006.
3. The March gain of 2.42% was the largest monthly increase since October 2006
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Largest Year-to-Year Gain in Case-Shiller Since '06
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Case-Schiller Home Price Index Dips 3.2% in Q1
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A Look at Case-Shiller, by Metro Area
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Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rise Less Than Forecast
S&P/Case-Shiller Index Table ==============================Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/============================= 1-months 3-months 6-months 1-year 2-years earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier ============================== ============================= US Composite-20 -0.49% -1.75% -2.28% 2.35% -16.75%
Cleveland 1.76% -0.52% -2.30% 6.67% -2.91% San Francisco 1.54% 0.25% 1.92% 16.17% -18.79% San Diego 1.46% 2.51% 3.53% 10.82% -13.59% Denver 0.62% -1.49% -3.20% 4.09% -1.64% Dallas 0.42% -2.62% -4.04% 2.99% -2.75% Seattle 0.12% -2.58% -3.50% -3.57% -19.38% Boston -0.01% -1.53% -2.70% 3.83% -4.48% Portland -0.06% -4.23% -4.08% -2.76% -17.65% Tampa -0.06% -1.72% -4.29% -3.55% -25.13% Phoenix -0.54% -2.63% 0.24% 2.43% -34.41% New York -0.67% -1.42% -3.24% -2.41% -13.79% Washington DC -0.69% -1.97% -3.00% 5.63% -13.82% Los Angeles -0.70% -0.45% 1.54% 6.05% -17.62% Las Vegas -0.79% -1.72% -2.14% -11.97% -39.41% Miami -0.93% -1.69% -2.36% -1.75% -30.03% Charlotte -1.07% -2.59% -4.26% -3.89% -12.76% Atlanta -1.81% -4.49% -6.76% -1.27% -16.65% Chicago -2.33% -5.93% -9.40% -2.28% -20.37% Minneapolis -2.70% -5.65% -6.84% 6.46% -18.01% Detroit -4.10% -6.75% -7.07% -4.62% -29.20% ============================================================
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The chart above shows the index levels for the U.S. National Home Price Index, as well as its annual returns. As of the first quarter of 2010, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in the spring of 2003. The 2010 first quarter values fell compared to the 4th quarter of 2009; however, the annual rate of return has significantly improved entering positive territory after more than three years. From its recent 2009 Q1 trough, home prices grew nationally by 6.5% over the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2009. From there, the 4th quarter of 2009 and the 1st quarter of 2010 saw a combined pull back of 4.2%.
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In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices rebounded from crisis lows, but recently have seen renewed weakness as tax incentives are ending and foreclosures are climbing.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 2.0% improvement in the first quarter of 2010 over the first quarter of 2009. In March, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of +3.1% and +2.3%, respectively. These two indices are reported at a monthly frequency and have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month for the past year.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 2.0% improvement in the first quarter of 2010 over the first quarter of 2009. In March, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of +3.1% and +2.3%, respectively. These two indices are reported at a monthly frequency and have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month for the past year.
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