Thursday, May 27, 2010

Case-Shiller House Prices "Weakening" + Real Case-Shiller National House Prices


[mEDITate-OR:
look at things case by case, rather than by Case-Shiller.
 
What these Case-Shiller charts are showing U.S. is that since the first of this year home prices are declining, almost all over U.S.
 
What they are also telling U.S. is that this 2nd Buyer Tax Credit program is not creating the same sized increase in home sales or prices that the first one did.
 
True, home prices are, this year WITH a Buyer Tax Credit, higher than last year, when we were with OUT one. But, while the Tax Credit IS driving home sales and prices up from last year, it is NOT driving them up this year from month to month.
 
In a separate report they told U.S. that in some sand states, like Arizona, many more home seller were cutting their list prices by much more than in previous months - why, to sell their homes.
 
Both buyers and sellers have been told and DO believe that this is the last Buyer Tax Credit program.
So..., IF they are going to sell OR buy a home they had better do it NOW.
 
This has also caused some owners to list their home, now, to see if they CAN sell them.
 
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The first graph shows the nominal not seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 29.8% from the peak, and up slightly in March (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 29.3% from the peak, and down slightly in March (SA).
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The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices. 

The Composite 10 is up 3.2% compared to March 2009.
The Composite 20 is up 2.4% compared to March 2009
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The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices decreased (SA) in 11 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in March (SA).
Prices in Las Vegas are off 56% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 5.8% from the peak
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By request, here is a graph that shows the national index in both nominal and real terms (adjusted with CPI less shelter).

In nominal terms (blue), the National Index declined 1.3% in Q1, and is 2.1% off the recent bottom in Q1 2009
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