Existing Home Sales increase in April + Inventory increases Year-over-Year + 'Shadow' Condos coming back on market

[mEDITate-OR:


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Existing Home Sales: Inventory increases Year-over-Year

The first graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

The second graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2010 (see Red columns for 2010).


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Existing Home Sales increase in April

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

The last graph shows the 'months of supply' metric.

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'Shadow' Condos coming back on market
The term "shadow inventory" is used in many different ways. My definition is: housing units that are not currently listed on the market, but will probably be listed soon. This includes:

Unlisted new high rise condos as discussed above. Note: these properties are not included in the new home inventory report.

Homeowners waiting for a better market. Some of the increase in inventory in April might have been sellers hoping to take advantage of the tax credit. This includes the accidental landlords who will try to sell as soon as the market improves and the current tenant's lease expires.

REOs, foreclosures in process and some percentage of seriously delinquent loans (some will cure, some are already listed as short sales). See: Mortgage Delinquencies by Period

It is difficult to put a number on the total, but it is in the millions of units and all this inventory will keep downward pressure on house prices for some time.

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