not only not see the correlation...
but the significance of the lag time.
This CR chart is unique to CR, and very good.
So..., let Jim tell you what you are seeing
and
what he sees that it means - for U.S.
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You can see both the correlation and the lag. The lag is usually about 12 to 18 months, with peak correlation at a lag of 16 months for single unit starts. The 2001 recession was a business investment led recession, and the pattern didn't hold.
Housing starts (blue) rebounded a little last year,and then moved sideways for some time, before declining again in May.
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However this time, with the huge overhang of existing housing units, this key sector isn't participating. Earlier today, NY Fed President William Dudley said the NY Fed's estimate was that "there are roughly 3 million vacant housing units more than usual". If that estimate is correct (I think it is too high), then it would take several years of housing starts at the current level, combined with more normal household growth, to eliminate the excess supply.
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Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-starts-and-unemployment-rate.html
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