Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Existing Homes = Cash deals push home sales higher, prices down = U.S. Home Sales Up 2.7% in January; Median Price Hits 9-Year Lows

[mEDITate-OR:

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Existing home sales
Month
Sales, annual rate*
Jan p2011
5,360,000
Dec r2010
5,220,000
Nov2010
4,640,000
Oct2010
4,380,000
Sept2010
4,410,000
Aug2010
4,240,000
Jul2010
3,860,000
Jun2010
5,230,000
May2010
5,680,000
Apr2010
5,800,000
Mar2010
5,440,000
Feb2010
5,020,000
Jan2010
5,090,000
* Seasonally adjusted
Source: National Assn. of Realtors
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You said IF he is right.

What you did not say is that there is occurring a massive shift in who is buying what over the last few months. Investors who did reenter the RE market in some locations, appear to have backed off when prices started back down again. Are you thinking/reporting this as "pending sales", or do you see that they are "completed sales" of those who became pending back when prices were stabilizing?

What you also did not notice was that Fla condo sales have also been skyrocketing, at even deeper discount prices. And, today, HW reports that over 100 condos have been declared ineligible for funding. So, even fewer mortgaged buyers.

Reports of huge increases in completed foreclosures suggest even higher REO "hidden inventory". Daniel, do you even KNOW how many there really are now. That supply figure you and NAR are using is based upon Realtor "listings". REO followers report that less than 70% of REO holding are even listed anywhere. So, where is the huge decline in available inventory? How long WILL it really take U.S. to consume the hidden inventory? How many home owners are holding their property OFF the market, praying that price will, someday, increase, so they can, finally, sell at not too much of a loss?

There is still no funding for above jumbo loan limits, and you propose, as part of your great, new, improved FMae&FMac solution to lower those limits - immediately. Meaning even fewer homes just above the bottom will be able to find financing for existing home owners.

Do not even get U.S. started on the "over estimates" that NAR puts out, that even they admit will shortly be cut back post-humourless-ly (sp), and reduced going forward. Some tell you that NAR's numbers are over 20% or more too high.
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Existing Home Sales Growth Continued in January

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U.S. Home Sales Up 2.7% in January; Median Price Hits 9-Year Lows
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/existing-home-sales-national-association-of-realtors-nar-january-home-sales-mls-listings-number-of-homes-sold-median-home-prices-condo-sales-report-lawrence-yun-3927.php
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Cash deals push home sales higher, prices down
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-02-23-existing-home-sales_N.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/business/economy/24econ.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
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