By the numbers: The Valley housing market, city by city + Glut of Valley rental homes results in lower prices, lease concession

[mEDITate-OR:

not see more of the shifts that are taking place..., in AZ...

Said AZBJ:

The snapshots here from the Valley’s 10 largest cities show disturbing similarities in their 2000 and 2009 numbers. It’s almost like the years in between never happened, because in many cases, any appreciation in home values was erased.

While there are many changes, the descriptions of them may not be accurate. For example, while one article below says that AZ is in the mid-range for "affordability", what they do not mention is how out of round prices were in the sand states like AZ.

However, what CoreLogic shows U.S. is that in AZ we are now back in a double dip.

And, with all the investor owned foreclosures being rented, the home RE rental market is in deep trouble.

What is not mentioned is the huge number of condos that are also on the market, as rentals.

In another article, just below on the blog, we see that there is a NEW flood of low priced foreclosed homes that will drive not only sales prices down but also home rentals. Which will drive down multi-unit condo & apartment rental prices.

Ugly, and about to get a lot uglier.

--------------------

-----------



=====
By the numbers: The Valley housing market, city by city
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/08/02/focus4.html#
------------
Glut of Valley rental homes results in lower prices, lease concession
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/20/story9.html
------------
Arizona home affordability rides middle ground
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/20/daily38.html?surround=lfn
-----------
Home prices flat nationally, down in Arizona
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/13/daily29.html
---------
CoreLogic: Home Price Index Remained Flat in July
http://www.corelogic.com/About-Us/News/CoreLogic-Home-Price-Index-Remained-Flat-in-July.aspx
=====

Jail and Jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that all of U.S. are guaranteed by the Constitution to be equal...
THAT provision is NOT enforced or applied that way.

What this shows U.S. is that in spite of what we SAY we believe and do...
what we actually do is VERY different.

Those who believe that "illegal immigrants" are our most serious problem, simply are ignoring what has not changed. If you did not know it before, you DO know it now - from the Tea Party reactions to Obama. Racism is alive an well among U.S.

We thought that not only had we made some progress, but we were better than that.
------------
Among the other disturbing findings (in chart form) from the report:
1) The United States houses more inmates than the top 35 European countries combined.
--------------
2) Incarceration rates in the United States have risen sharply since 1980, especially for young black men. Today more than one in three young black men without a high school diploma is currently behind bars.

------------------
3) If you include inmates when looking at the jobs picture, that picture looks a whole lot worse. Believe it or not, young black men who dropped out of high school are more likely to be incarcerated than employed.

---------4) These trends have implications not only for those who are serving time, but also for the families that depend on them. There are twice as many minor children with incarcerated parents as there are incarcerated parents.

=========
Jail and Jobs
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/jail-and-jobs/
===============

Phoenix Foreclosure Market Up: High Tide + Just The Short Sale Homes, Condos, Lofts, Land For Sale In Phoenix

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the extreme dislocation in the RE market in AZ...

First, note that the NEW increase is huge over last year,  and over the last quarter...
Second, note WHERE these are happening, not on the ground, but the price/mortgage levels.
Third, note where the dog is not barking..., in the "jumble RE loan +" price levels.
Fourth, note the short sale numbers.

What that tells U.S. is that the servicer/lender banks ARE taking back and listing the lowest priced home bcuz they can sell them.
And, while they are taking back higher priced homes they are NOT listing them, bcuz they can NOT sell them.
And, what the owners of those properties are forced to do is try to minimize their losses by seeking "short sales".

What MIGHT also be true is that the servicer/lender banks will be FAR more willing to approve high end short sales - they have little, if any, alternative.
--------
Here are Artur Ciesielski's comments and analysis:
--------   REO's:
Active bank owned homes are up: up nearly 84% over last year and 38% since last quarter.  Currently there are 8,544 foreclosed home for sale, but sales are up only 4% raising the total supply to double that of last quarter and putting some pressure on the market, including prices.
Most of the increase in inventory has been in the $200,000 and lower price range with 129% increase in the $100,000 or less.  The $500,000 plus price range had a 5% increase reports the Cromford Report.
------------  Short Sales:
The Phoenix market is now heavily saturated by short sale properties which are on the upswing as a percentage of the market and total now on average over 15,000 properties in Maricopa County.
They are also popular amongst buyers who are able to stick with the short sale process which does require a different approach then normal or even bank owned purchases.  Often the ability to persevere is rewarded with a good purchase.
===========
Phoenix Foreclosure Market Up: High Tide
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/260764
------------
Just The Short Sale Homes, Condos, Lofts,
Land For Sale In Phoenix
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/260659
===========

September Employment Report Preview

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the real impact of the census employees...
Not only has Jim @ CR provided U.S. with the best views of the Census Worker impacts, he has also consistently explained for U.S. what it really means, and what the unemployment numbers REALLY are.
So, you need to read this CR article to be able to interpret the next report
--------

==========
September Employment Report Preview
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/september-employment-report-preview.html
============

Foreclosure Mess: More on BofA Foreclosure Freeze, Wells Fargo satisfied with Procedures + Report: Title Insurance company stops insuring Chase Foreclosures

[mEDITate-OR:
not read what all the shouting is all about...

There was "fraud in the inception" when they originated these bad RE loans.
Now, they are committing fraud, that is going to bite them, and U.S., in the ass.

What was a mess, has now turned absolutely disgusting.

As you will see from the 2n article, IF the title insurance industry will not insure NEW "foreclosures..., that does not even begin to address those that have been foreclosed and re-sold.

While we DID need a "jobs bill", did we really need another "Lawyers' Relief Act"?
-----------

========
Foreclosure Mess:
More on BofA Foreclosure Freeze
Wells Fargo satisfied with Procedures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/foreclosure-mess-more-on-bofa.html
--------------
Report: Title Insurance company
stops insuring Chase Foreclosures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/report-title-insurance-company-stops.html
=========

Commercial Real Estate: End of Extend and Pretend? = Lenders gaining speed in going after commercial foreclosures

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the beginning of the end of Extend and Pretend.

What we have to remember is that the vast majority of ALL cmcl RE loans are 5yr balloons that MUST be re-financed, OR extended, OR defaulted.


What "They" now know is that for cmcl RE it simply is NOT going to get better any time soon.
What WE do not know is whether or not this is going to spread to first the sand states, and then to the rest of U.S.?
--------
Comment by Jim @ CR:
Las Vegas is in worse shape than most other areas, but it sounds like the lenders are now moving ahead and foreclosing on CRE properties - and that might mean the pace of CRE foreclosures will pick up nationwide.
=========
Commercial Real Estate: End of Extend and Pretend?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/commercial-real-estate-end-of-extend.html
----------
Lenders gaining speed in going after commercial foreclosures
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/oct/01/lenders-gaining-speed-going-after-commercial-forec/
==========

Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 877 institutions

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what most of the rest of U.S. do not see...


This is not only the latest "unofficial problem bank list"...
but, CR provides U.S. with a summary of where we have come from the beginning of the CR providing U.S. with this unique and extremely valuable tool for U.S. to understand.
Below is probably the best explanation you will read for this last year.
-----------
Transition Matrix
With the passage of another quarter, it is time to update the transition matrix. The Unofficial Problem Bank List debuted on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions with assets of $276.3 billion (see table). 

Over the past 13 months, 144 institutions have been removed from the original list with 103 due to failure, 29 due to action termination, and 12 due to unassisted merger. Thus, about 72 percent of the removals are from failure. 

Nearly 27 percent of the 389 institutions on the original list have failed, which is substantially higher than the 12 percent figure usually cited by the media as the failure rate for institutions on the FDIC Problem Bank List. Failed bank assets have totaled $159 billion or nearly 58 percent of the $276.3 billion on the original list.

Since the publication of the original list, another 740 institutions have been added. However, only 632 of those 740 additions remain on the current list as 108 institutions have been removed in the interim. Of the 108 interim removals, 88 were due to failure, 15 were due to unassisted merger, 4 from action termination, and one from voluntary liquidation.

Again, failure represents a disproportionate 81.5 percent of the reason for removal. In total, 1,129 institutions have made an appearance on the Unofficial Problem Bank List and 191 or 16.9 percent have failed. 

The average asset size of removals because of failure is $1.2 billion. Currently, the average asset size of institutions on the current list is $474 million versus $710 million on the original list. This would suggest the asset size of future failures will likely be lower.
---------------

Unofficial Problem Bank List
Change Summary
		Number of Institutions	Assets ($Thousands)
Start (8/7/2009)		389	276,313,429
Subtractions
	Action Terminated	29	(4,038,439)
	Unassisted Merger	12	(1,762,072)
	Failures	103	(159,037,514)
	Asset Change		(11,891,765)
Still on List at 7/02/2010		245	99,583,639
Additions		632	316,517,379
End (10/01/2010)		877	416,101,018
Interperiod Deletions1
	Action Terminated	4	12,881,783
	Unassisted Merger	15	2,545,683
	Voluntary Liquidation	1	119,082
	Failures	88	70,091,963
	Total	108	85,638,511
1Institution not on 8/7/2009 or 10/01/2010 list but appeared on a list between these dates.

--------
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 1, 2010.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/10/unofficial-problem-bank-list-october-1.html
=========
Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 877 institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases.html
==================

The world is coming to an end..., for me and Starbucks !!!

[mEDITate-OR:
not wake up...!
to The Facts...!!
until tis too late !!!
On Friday the 13 th year high...
 is our low point.
-------------

============
Coffee prices soar...
http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/10/markets/coffee_prices/index.htm
============

Corporate debt issuance at 3-year high

[mEDITate-OR:

not ask "Why? If they have stockpiled all that cash...?

what are they planning to DO with this money...

The answer is, of course, to refinance their old more expensive debt.

While you listen, or not listen, to the screaming in DC about Govt debt...

you do NOT hear much, from "Them" or the press...

and never from CNBC of Faux News...

about "corporate debt".

The total increase in corporate debt during the W years was even greater than the total govt debt W ran up on U.S..

True, the foreign trade deficits were out side that box.

and the war costs that were not, and still are not, paid for are also.

Nevertheless, from GM and Chrysler, to AIG...

to the Big Bailed Out Banks..., to the little community banks...

everybody was taking out massive increases in debt.

Now, they have to re-finance.

What "They" are NOT telling U.S. is that our Govts could save U.S. a TON of money...

by simply calling all high interest Govts bonds and borrowing...

and replacing it with current low interest borrowing.

Just as YOU should look at a REFI of your home loan, so they should to.

-------------

===========
Corporate debt issuance at 3-year high
http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/10/markets/bondcenter/bonds/
==========

Cardholders Prefer Debit as Credit-Card Use Falls + Credit card use plunges, debit use rises

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that most of U.S. did see what they were doing.

and we adjusted accordingly.

You may, but this is only permissive, not necessary or even wise...

show the Big Bailed Out Banks your sympathy.

----------

• 
  

JGBHimself

Sep-10 @ 2:17 PM

What also appears in the AZRep parent paper = USA Today - are article from two years ago at the beginning of the RE credit crisis telling U.S. about how the major credit cards were making massive increases in fees and costs in order to "cover" their "securitized" RE loans.

They also wrote that one of the problems was that the same banks/credit card co's had also "securitized" their/our credit cards debts. One bad idea deserves another, it would seem.

What they also have told U.S. is that immediately prior to the new credit card regulations, the CCCo's have once again made last minute "improvements" to the costs and fees that they charge U.S. so that they will have them in place when the new rules would prevent them.

Oddly, to the CCCo's is that many of U.S. have simply stopped using them.

And, people in underwater and about to be foreclosed homes are now not making their home loan payments, but using the money to pay off their much higher interest CC bills.

Go figure, bcuz they did.

----------

At San Francisco-based Visa Inc., the world’s biggest payments network, the total payment volume for debit cards increased by 7.9 percent in 2009 to $883 billion as credit-card volume declined by 7.3 percent to $764 billion.

------------

===========

Cardholders Prefer Debit as Credit-Card Use Falls
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-08/cardholders-prefer-debit-as-credit-card-use-falls-javelin-says.html
-------------
Credit card use plunges, debit use rises

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2010/09/10/20100910credit-card-use-plunges-hard-times-drag-debit-use-rises.html

and

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2010-09-10-credit10_ST_N.htm

=============     OR, how soon we forget

Why banks are boosting credit card interest rates and fees
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2008-11-09-bank-credit-card-interest-rates_N.htm
-------------
Changing credit card terms squeeze consumers
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2008-12-15-credit-card-consumer-squeeze_N.htm
===========

Mortgage Applications Up, Refinance Applications Fall This Week

[mEDITate-OR:

-------------

-------------

------------

===========

Mortgage Applications Up
Refinance Applications Fall This Week
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-mortgage-bankers-association-weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-the-market-composite-index-mortgage-rates-refi-mortgages-lowest-mortgage-rates-3128.php
============

Commercial Property Losses Mount as Loan Servicers Triage Real Estate Debt

[mEDITate-OR:

not know if this is the beginning of the end...

or the end of the beginning.

What we have heard, but not seen, yet...
is the write down of commercial RE.
Why not, is a very good question.
One suggested answer is that most of current Cmcl RE loans are 5 yr balloons that did not have to be repaid or refinanced until this year and next. They tell U.S. that 75% of current Cmcl RE loans must be by the end of next year.
Another suggestion is that most Cmcl RE loans are held by small, local banks - you know, the ones on the FDIC problem list. They do not have enough "equity" left to write off these loans. If they do, they fold.
These two article do not show U.S. any charts, but they DO provide you with what probably is the best available current info on the problem.
===========
Commercial Property Losses Mount as Loan Servicers Triage Real Estate Debt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-10/commercial-property-losses-mount-as-loan-servicers-triage-real-estate-debt.html
-----------
U.S. Retail Space Availability to Drop in 2011
CB Richard Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-08/retail-space-availability-to-drop-in-2011-as-u-s-shoppers-boost-spending.html
=========

Government Employment since 1976

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that what is NOT there, is what they think is...

ex-military, there has not been any increase in govt employment.

no war, no jobs!

 

Try to sell that at your Tea Party.

 

The 3rd chart is stunning, with your mourning Tea...!!!

When you back out military employment, non-military employment has gone down.

They are lying to you.

They know it and don't care.

Most of U.S. don't know, and don't care.

-------
REMEMBER: go to the CR web site for the LARGE charts!
---------
This graph shows federal, state, and local government employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population since 1976 (all data from the BLS).

Federal government employment has decreased over the last 35 years (mostly in the 1990s), state government employment has been flat, and local government employment has increased.
----------
The second graph shows government employment excluding education as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional.

The percent of federal and state government employment (ex-education) have all declined. Local government employment has been steady - so overall government employment (ex-education) as a percent of the civilian population is down over the last 35 years.

------------
There has been a surge in defense spending, but Federal spending ex-defense and state and local spending has been fairly flat (but as I noted above, underfunded future liabilities - like state and local underfunded pension plans - don't show up).

============
Government Employment since 1976
by CalculatedRisk on 9/09/2010 12:23:00 PM
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/government-employment-since-1976.html
===========

US trade deficit contracted sharply in July posting its biggest drop in 17 months + Shrunk 14% in July = narrows to $42.8 billion in July

[mEDITate-OR:
not see all those petro dollars going to Mexico, Canada & Venezuela.

While we love to make speeches about China pegging their dollar to U.S....

we seem to forget that Canada has done, or is trying to do, the same thing.

In spite of both Canada and China having stronger economies, currently, the political and economic leadership of Canada screams bloody murder whenever the Loonie gets close to par or above it.

Why, bcuz if the Loonie is slightly under the greenback, nobody seem to notice the US$ 5 Billion per month we give to Canada for their oil.

This month Canada's share was down a bit, but, Mexico took the difference and upped their share..., to fight the good fight against the drug cartels, of course.

And, if you believe that one, we have some really good coke to sell you, at a discount.

---------------

----------------

--------

------------

============

US trade deficit contracted sharply in July - posting its biggest drop in 17 months
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020534.shtml
--------------
Trade Gap Shrunk 14% in July
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/trade-gap-shrunk-14-in-july/62694/
----------
Trade deficit narrows to $42.8 billion in July
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100910/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_trade
=========

Student loan debt now surpasses credit card debt in the US

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that we're another day older and deeper in debt...
-----------

=============

• 
  

JGBHimself

Sept-10 @ 1:46 PM

This article appears in the LSU student newspaper a couple of days ago with a great pie chart too. But, what is does is show U.S. that while "They" may have cut YOUR taxes, they forced you, your kids and your grandkids to mortgage themselves up to the hilt, to get an education.

From the GI Bill after WW2 and Korea making it possible for all those now about to retire on SS to go to college or trade schools free, and afford to buy their first homes, we are now down to this GD mess.

When those war vets came back & got their degrees, they owed no one anything. Today, even the Gulf vets benefits, while having been improved, do not cover most educational costs. And, those without GI benefits will get of out school with debts and monthly payments almost equal to the mortgage on a starter home. And, there are no jobs for them.

"They" tell U.S. that they cut our taxes. What they forgot to tell U.S. was that they would take it all back, and more, from U.S. as increased educational and medical care cost that we have to pay out of pocket, or borrow.

========
Student loan debt now surpasses credit card debt in the US
http://www.lsureveille.com/mobile/news/student-loan-debt-now-surpasses-credit-card-debt-in-the-us-1.2321476
and
http://www.azcentral.com/business/consumer/articles/2010/09/10/20100910student-loan-debt-exceeds-credit-card-debt.html#ixzz0zA68yR4T
=========