RE and economic charts

Saturday, January 1, 2011

2010 year end charts = TBill 10yr yield + DOW + NASDQ + EURO + CADUSD +

[mEDITate-OR:

miss the connections, and disconnection, between housing and other charts

While you might assume that the 10yr TBill, which determines mortgage rates for U.S., controls the sales of new & existing homes, and pending sales & starts...

you would be wrong, this year.

And, if you compare these stock & dollar charts with the CRs chart in the next blog posting, you will see that there is little comparison. In spite of Wall Street telling U.S. that their prices are driven by the economy. Not jobs and not housing. Nada, nyet, zed, zero.

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What is also very interesting is the rise & the fall & the rise & the fall of the EURO vs the US dollar...

and of course China, being pegged to U.S., and both their largest trading partners.

What you REALLY need to see is the relationship between U.S. - and China & the EURO

with stable solid financial countries = Australia & Canada.

Look at the last two (2) years !!

While we tried to drive down the price of our dollar to produce more exports, we did. Against "stronger" currencies/countries.
Canada down 30 cents per US$, Australia down 50 cents per!
But, there is NO evidence of that in our exports.

Not to them, nor the rest of the world.

What's up with that?

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Chart forUSD/AUD (USDAUD=X)

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US TBills 10yr
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chart_ws_bond_10yearyield.top.png

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Dow, Nasdaq & S&P 500
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2010dow.top.png

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Crude Oil Prices + Gas prices 4 U.S.
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CADUS - 1 year, 2 years
US$ vs EURO - 1 yr, 5 yr & last week
U.S. vs Australia - 1-2 years
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--------------- US$ vs EURO - 1 yr, 5 yr & last week

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Chart forUSD/EUR (USDEUR=X)

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=========== U.S. vs Australia
Chart forUSD/AUD (USDAUD=X)

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Chart forUSD/AUD (USDAUD=X)

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CR = What about those Option ARMs?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what is not there...

We have been saying for over a year that the 2nd wave of bad ARMs & subprime loans does NOT take into consideration the fact that over 85% + of them have already been or are in foreclosure or BK. These bad sand state RE loans are GONE, already!
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First, many of the loans have already defaulted. There is a difference between the original recast date, and the actual recast date - because negatively amortizing loans hit the recast ceiling earlier than the original forecast - and those loans have already defaulted (or have been modified).
Second, some of these loans were modified (Option ARMs and Alt-A loans were targeted by the banks for internal modification programs), and some of these borrowers have probably refinanced - the few that had some equity.
Third. But what these graphs don't show is a huge spike in Option ARM and Alt-A loans delinquent or in the foreclosure process. Although there will probably be more delinquent Option ARM and Alt-A loans next year, I'm more concerned about falling house prices and negative equity than a huge wave of Option ARM and Alt-A defaults.
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[SNLCreditSuisse.jpg]

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Foreclosure Rate by Type

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CR = What about those Option ARMs?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/what-about-those-option-arms.html
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Problem Banks: Stress by State + Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 935 Institutions

[mEDITate-OR:

absolutely KNOW that "Go West Young Man" did NOT mean this...!!!

Of the top 10 most stressed out banks by state, eight (8) are on the West Coast.

All seven states West of the Rockies are listed. Every single one of U.S.

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When ranking markets with a minimum of 15 institutions at year-end 2007, Arizona has experienced the most stress with 45.6 percent of its institutions having failed or being identified as a problem. Washington is a close second at 45.4 percent. The other stressed banking states that rank in the top ten include Nevada (43 percent), Oregon (40 percent), Florida (37 percent), Georgia (34 percent), California (34 percent), Utah (32 percent), Idaho (26 percent), and Colorado (25 percent).

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The Unofficial Problem Bank List did NOT reach 1,000.

Obviously, we should have tried harder.

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Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 31, 2010.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/12/unofficial-problem-bank-list-dec-31.html

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Problem Banks: Stress by State

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/problem-banks-stress-by-state.html

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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 935 Institutions

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_31.html

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A few for Graphs for 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
realize that you can not do better than these...!!!

Do NOT take my Bar-tender-ass' admonition...
go to CR and read this article, and view the charts.

"We thank you, and Leslies will thank you."
http://www.allelementsdesign.com/schilling/company/salt/leslie.html
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Percent Job Losses During Recessions

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Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates

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Distressing Gap

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MBA Delinquency by Period

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Fannie Freddie FHA REO Inventory

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Personal Consumption Expenditures

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A few for Graphs for 2010
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/few-for-graphs-for-2010.html
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Saturday, December 25, 2010

Residential Mortgage Application Volumes Continue to Slide in U.S. in Mid-December + U.S. Consumer Credit Default Rates Increase in November; Mortgages Leading All Categories

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder why it looks so bad
when "They" say that every thing is looking up, again, to them.
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The Refinance Index decreased 24.6 percent from the previous week.
The Refinance Index has declined six straight weeks and is at its lowest level since the week ending April 30, 2010.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier.
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The four-week moving average of the purchase index is at about the levels of 1997
- and about 17% below the levels of April this year
- suggesting weak existing home sales through January 2011.
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MBA Purchase Index

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Residential Mortgage Application Volumes Continue to Slide in U.S. in Mid-December
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/mortgage-bankers-association-mba-weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-market-composite-index-mortgage-loan-application-volume-mortgage-rates-rising-interest-rates-3651.php
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U.S. Consumer Credit Default Rates Increase in November
Mortgages Leading All Categories
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/home-affordable-refinance-program-harp-home-affordable-modification-program-hamp-modified-loans-loan-default-rates-freddie-mac-fannie-mae-3646.php
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MBA: Mortgage Refinance activity declines sharply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/mba-mortgage-refinance-activity.html
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Why I Would Raise Taxes + Health Reform Without a Public Plan: The German Model

[mEDITate-OR;
find these two charts VERY confusing.

1st chart -- the ONLY time we paid enough to cover our costs - for Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid AND for two war in Iraq and Afghanistan...
were under William Jefferson Clinton.
2nd chart -- we are the ONLY major country that has very low taxes AND pretends that WE are the world's leader.

Not only do those same countries have less expensive medical care, it is fully funded AND covers everyone.
And, they are NOT all using "socialized medicine"

If you have any interest in "The Truth", you will like these two very informative articles.
IF you do NOT want to hear anything that conflicts with what you KNOW is true...
well..., as RonnieR told U.S., get ready for a huge surprise...
incoming, soon, from China.
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DESCRIPTION

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Why I Would Raise Taxes
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/why-i-would-raise-taxes/
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Health Reform Without a Public Plan: The German Model
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/health-reform-without-a-public-plan-the-german-model/
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Not-so-happy tale of the Gasoline Grinch = Gas prices near $3 a gallon = Highest price ever at Christmas comes at the worst time for holiday drive

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder how you're gonna get to Grandmother's house...
bcuz, since you couldn't afford to buy HER a present...
you called to ask her to "put yours in the mail"...
before Congress shuts the USPO down.

Oddly, dear ol gannie told you where to "stick it"
if you don't show up to get it

But, not to worry, Caesar Chavez is making out like the bandit he is...
and
The Gulf oil states..., like IRAN...!!!
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Not-so-happy tale of the Gasoline Grinch
Highest price ever at Christmas comes at the worst time for holiday drive
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40798602/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
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Gas prices near $3 a gallon
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/13/news/economy/three_dollar_gas/index.htm
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About the Fortune Finance article below by Colin Barr

What we NEED to see, and understand, is the point that he is making
- while the EURO and the US$ swing up and down with regard to each other
with China tagging - or is that pegging - along.

BOTH the EURO and the US$ are falling all over the world.
As Colin points to the Swiss Franc
to be Frank with U.S.
readers/commentors as Seeking Alpha point out that this is ALSO true
with regard to the Australian & Canadian dollars...
and most other currencies of stable, growing economies.

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What Colin ALSO pointed out is that their is a mass exodus from Govt 10yr bonds
from Germany, Japan, the UK and from U.S.
What THAT means is that short term interest has been driven UP.
That has transferred into a huge rise in (Y)our home mortgage costs.

Can China play Santa for the euro? Is China Claus about to deliver a heart-warming ending to the euro crisis?

[mEDITate-OR:
not even no the question or the answer...
to the China Problems...
and
The EURO problem...
and
all the problems of U.S.
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Made in China?
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Why would China use trade surplus dollars, not from U.S. this time, but from Europe, their largest trading partner, as in exports to, to bail out some/many/most of the weak PIIGS?

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Well, we're glad you asked U.S. that question. Why wouldn't they try to stabilize the wild EURO swings against the US$ and their largest export market? Huge swings in exports to Europe is NOT what the Chinese economy need right now. China last decade loaned U.S. almost US$ 1 Trillion so we could fight two wars without raising taxes, and so we could buy MacMansions. We were their most important customer last decade, Europe is in this one.
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Why did China announce that they would lend to themselves the SAME amount next year as last year? Bcuz, they NEED stable and steady growth to offset any trade losses in either Europe OR with U.S.
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What you should be asking, Colin, is whether China is going to use its trade dollars to help Europe, but not U.S.
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Can China play Santa for the euro?
Is China Claus about to deliver a heart-warming ending to the euro crisis?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/23/can-china-play-santa-for-the-euro/
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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall Amid Steep Drop In Transportation Orders

[mEDITate-OR:
not find that we do not find the growth that we were told we could see

What "They" did not mention when they yelled about all the auto orders
was that most of them were pickup trucks.
and fleet sales.
What people "rent" at the airport is not what they buy for their kids.
nor for themselves.
But, this month even those sales collapsed.
What now?
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