Saturday, April 9, 2011

The ugly math of Medicare + Medicaid reduced by $1 trillion in GOP plan

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that when they cut the costs..., to them...
it will not cut the services..., to you.
------------
What we now are seeing is The W Bush Drug Bill on steroids...
done to U.S., once again, this time by ex-Pres. Obama.
--------
When the last session of congress that was controlled by the Republican Party - House, Senate, President & the Supremes - was in session, they passed a Senior Citizen's Drug Bill, during the summer and right before the election that voted them out of office, five years ago.
What they "forgot to do" was provide for the money it would cost to pay for "The Drugs".
They did cut your taxes, then they drove up the costs..., of the unfunded mandate.
to benefit seniors, of course; but also to pay back the drug co's for the campaign contributions to get themselves elected.
Didn't work.
They didn't get elected, and the costs drove Medicare and Medicaid through the roof.
-----------
That was then, this is now.
------------
The Three D's - House, Senate and ex-Pres Obama passed Medical Care, aka Obamacare.
What they did NOT do is cover the costs.
They did NOT cut the short term costs to the state or Federal govts.
They did NOT increase the taxes they KNEW were needed to pay for it.
And, now, as totally unexpected as it was, with declining state and federal revenues, the money to pay for existing medical care under Medicare and under Medicaid does not exist.
State's borrowed the money from the Fed, under Stimulus Bill, with everyone assuming that the economy would recover and we all would live happily ever after.
That was then, this is now.
--------
When Congress passed, and Obama sign the extensions of the W Bush tax cuts
he signed his own and (Y)our death warrants.
His, bcuz he now has no money to pay for our existing medical care, nor the new care he promised U.S.
(Y)ours, bcuz there being no money
what your brilliant House R's have decided to do is -
not only NOT continue to cover Medicare and Medicaid costs
but to cut the funds being paid to the states.
-----------
This year AZ cut back on care drastically -
including life saving procedures. And, people died.
When, not if, the additional Fed cuts apply
ALL states will now have to ration "death".
Who will live and who will die will be decided
NOT by the R's Congress which cut the funds...!
but by the states which were skewered (sp?) by them.
----------
When the R's told U.S. that
IF we adopted Obamacare, the govt would "ration death"...
they did NOT tell U.S.
that they were the one's who would get to do it.
-----------
Medicare reform: The ugly math
===========
The ugly math of Medicare
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/07/news/economy/medicare_reform/index.htm?eref=mrss_igoogle_business
============

Decline of U.S. dollar since Jan 1st against Loonie, Euro, and Aussie $

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why the price of gas is going up...
{see blog post two down}
and
why the value of the U.S.Dollar is going down.
-----------
The decision was made - to drive the value of  (Y)our USDollar down.
The assumption was that would make (Y)our exports cheaper and
the rest of the world would buy a lot more of our "stuff"
A funny thing happened on the way to the world forum...
-----------
some of  the dumber ones of U.S. assumed that those who sold U.S. crude oil...
such as Mexico, Venusuala, Sudan, Canada and the Gulf Oil states...
would allow the value of the oil being sold TO Hexxon and U.S.
to drop in value, at the same time, in the same amounts.
---------
Oddly, to your President and his trusted advisors, that did not happen.
Nor did our exports increase by enough to offset the increase in the costs of crude oil.
---------
Bad assumption.
Bad economics.
Bad economy, getting worse.
Bad for most of U.S., but, ByGawd twas it good for Hexxon.
Butt, of the joke, "What's Good for Hexxon, must be Good for U.S."..!!!
------------    CANada {Forever UP?}
Chart forCAD/USD (CADUSD=X)
---------------
Chart forCAD/USD (CADUSD=X)
===========    EURO {out of its slump}
Chart forEUR/USD (EURUSD=X)
----------
Chart forEUR/USD (EURUSD=X)
==========    Aussie Dollar {selling off more stuff to China}
Chart forAUD/USD (AUDUSD=X)
--------------
Chart forAUD/USD (AUDUSD=X)
==========
Decline of U.S. dollar since Jan 1st against Loonie, Euro, and Aussie $
From Yahoo/Canada/Finance.
==========

Failure is less of an option = business failures down 13%

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder if some are holding on..., longer...
assuming that the end is near...???
------------

============
Failure is less of an option
business failures down 13%
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/08/failure-is-less-of-an-option/
===========

Oil at the tipping point - Has the great oil rally of 2011 run its course? + high oil prices are here to stay - Don't hold your breath for a big drop in oil prices

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why the duck has oil on it...
-----------
Posted By JGBell, Mesa, Az: April 8, 2011 3:44 am
Under William Jefferson:
rising just over 2% annually between 1992 and 2001
Under W:
oil prices rose at an annual clip above 12% in the past decade
Did Big Dick Cheney really cost U.S. 10% per year?
As they asked Nixon, what did W know, and when did he know it?
As Sergeant Schultz told U.S.: "I know NoTink, absolutely NO-Tink."
--------------
--------------
=============
Oil at the tipping point
Has the great oil rally of 2011 run its course?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/08/oil-at-the-tipping-point/
==============
IMF says high oil prices are here to stay
Don't hold your breath for a big drop in oil prices.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/07/imf-says-high-oil-prices-are-here-to-stay/
============

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

America’s energy use, in one nifty chart

[mEDITate-OR:
not know what is incoming or outgoing...
and from where to where...
----------
These three chart of energy use: by U.S., by Canada and Mexico
are simply stunning.
First, Compare the rolls of each type of energy.
Second, NOTE the exports of energy:
Canada sends huge supplies of both natural gas & crude oil to U.S.
Mexico sends no natural gas, but huge supplies of crude oil to U.S.
What they do NOT show is how much "refined" petroleum we send/sell back to them.
----------
Below in pdf charts are the FRESHWATER flows of water:
for Arid-zone-Ah, Californicate U.S., New Mexico and Nevada
Notice the difference between domestic (human) use and agriculture/irrigation.
Stunning.
The sole reason that the Colorado River does NOT still flow into the sea....
is we use it very inefficiently to grow food, and in Yuma, Az, cotton.
-------------
The Good News is, of course, we also use lots of Mexicans to pick it.
-------------

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/energy_flow_2009/LLNL_US_Energy_Flow_2009.png
-------------------------
energy
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/international/Canada_Energy_2007.png
------------
carbon
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/international/Mexico_Energy_2007.png
-------------
Water Flow Charts 2000
U.S. Freshwater Withdrawals in 2000
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/water/water_flow_archive/US_water2000.pdf
Arizona Freshwater Withdrawals in 2000
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/water/water_flow_archive/AZ_water2000.pdf
California Freshwater Withdrawals in 2000
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/water/water_flow_archive/CA_water2000.pdf
Idaho Freshwater Withdrawals in 2000
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/water/water_flow_archive/ID_water2000.pdf
New Mexico Freshwater Withdrawals in 2000
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/water/water_flow_archive/NV_water2000.pdf
===============
America’s energy use, in one nifty chart
http://www.grist.org/climate-energy/2011-04-06-americas-energy-use-in-one-nifty-chart
-----------
Very LARGE Chart
U.S. energy flow
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/energy_flow_2009/LLNL_US_Energy_Flow_2009.png
--------------
Very LARGE Chart
Carbon Emissions
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/carbon/carbon_emissions_2008/LLNL_US_Carbon_2008.png
============
carbon
-------------

Prices are low! Mortgages cheap! But you can't get one + Existing home sales tumble 9.6% (30% off their peak) + New home sales tumble to record low (lowest level since 1963) + Home prices near a double dip (fell for the sixth consecutive month)

[mEDITate-OR:
explain, precisely, what part of this you do not understand...
---------------
chart_home_sales_depressed2.top.gif
=============
Prices are low! Mortgages cheap! But you can't get one
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/06/real_estate/why_you_cant_get_a_mortgage/index.htm
-------------
Existing home sales tumble 9.6%
(30% off their peak)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/21/news/economy/existing_home_sales/index.htm?iid=EL
-----------
New home sales tumble to record low
(lowest level since 1963)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/23/real_estate/new_home_sales/index.htm?iid=EL
-----------------
Home prices near a double dip
(fell for the sixth consecutive month)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/29/real_estate/January_home_prices/index.htm?iid=EL
============

Monday, April 4, 2011

Consumer Bankruptcy filings decrease in Q1 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
think that BKs going down, slightly, from their peak
is as great news as job creation & unemployment
going up slightly from their trough/bottom.
It is, and it is not.
(said the economist)
-----------
This CR chart is unique.
While others report the numbers, CR shows them to U.S.
-------
Remember, go to the CR site to see the LARGE chart
-------------

============
Consumer Bankruptcy filings decrease in Q1 2011
-----------
Consumer Bankruptcies Trend Down
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-bankruptcies-trend-down-2011-04-04
=========

Saturday, April 2, 2011

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation January 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
find difficulty "swallowing" how bad it really is..., out there.
----------
in January, an additional 105,470 new recipients were added to the food stamps program
an increase of 12.06% on a year-over-year basis
while household participation increased 14.52%.
------------
The Good News is that not very many of U.S. will starve to death.
The Bad News is that Walmart will not get all of the business.
----------
To the best of my re-search, Sold on Top is the only one who regularly reports the food stamp numbers with these kinds of charts.
If they were not so beautiful...
we might think they are too terribly ugly.
-------------

-------------

-----------

===========
On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation January 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/04/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation.html
==============

Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the world is now rosy for U.S. at the end of Q-1
---------
THESE three charts show U.S. why Calculated Risk is held to such high esteem, and it is called one of the best, if not THE best, economic info/blog source.
--------
Now we are at the end of Q-1, we need to LOOK, really SEE, where we are.
When all are saying that it is finally over and we are moving in the right direction
YOU need only look at CR's 1st chart to see that is a lie.
NO other chart shows U.S. so clearly how deep in a hole we in fact are
nor, how far we much rise to get back.
----------
The 2nd and 3rd charts show U.S. that having a job does not mean your fully employed
and that being out of work for a very long time is the new norm.
What these two charts do NOT show U.S. is all those "quitters"
those who have given up, knowing that there are no jobs to be found.
--------
Below is a post, with charts, that show U.S. that there are LESS people now employed than before W was elected over a decade ago.
While there are now 30 million more of U.S.
As Marie said:  "Let them eat cake."
-----------
Percent Job Losses During Recessions

-------------
Part Time for Economic Reasons

-------------
Unemployed over 26 Weeks

=============
Employment Summary, Part Time Workers
and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/employment-summary-and-part-time.html
==========

FHFA: Where the Conforming Loan Limit Might Fall on October 1 + FHFA Mortgage Market Notes

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that this will affect you, personally...
or
assume that it will not.
----------
From CR's report we were directed to the FHFA tables & Map.
First, there is NO impact on AZ - Phoenix or Tuscon.
Second, there is a less than 50K impact on the Portland-Vancouver area.
Third, there IS a 50-100K impact on King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties!
and a larger impact on San Juan Island and Kitsap.
Fourth, there is an above 100K impact on all of California, from San Diego to San Fransisco.
----------
To see the map, click on the 2nd article, and page down.
===========
FHFA: Where the Conforming Loan Limit Might Fall on October 1
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/fhfa-where-conforming-loan-limit-might.html
-------------
FHFA Mortgage Market Notes
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/20671/MMNote_2011-01_LoanLimit.pdf
========

Unofficial Problem Bank List at 985 Institutions = All enforcement actions against the banks on the Unofficial Problem Bank List were terminated this week leaving us nothing to publish.

April Fools!
In reality, however, it was a fairly safe & sound week
as no new banks were added to the list nor were there any failures. 
-----------
Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. 
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Apr 1, 2011.
----------
This is a sortable list.
You can see your own state
and divide and conquer you lack of knowledge.
Have some fun.
------
before we go over a thousand!
=========
Unofficial Problem Bank List at 985 Institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/unofficial-problem-bank-list-at-985.html
=======

Freddie Mac mortgage interest rates inch up this week = Bumpy ride for Treasuries in first quarter + Mortgage Applications Dip 7.5% in US + MBA: Mortgage Demand Down As Rates Rise Last Week

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that what was taking off like a rocket..., stalled out...,@ 5%
----------
Bcuz RE mortgage rates are tied to 10yr TBills,
the "run" by foreign banks from them drove yield up.
Why they started to run, and why they stopped, is unknown.
But, what had happened is that mortgage rates are relatively stable
@ just under 5%.
------------
The 1st chart shows U.S. the jump, and the plateau we are on.
The next 3 show U.S. different views of current RE mortgage rates.
1st shows U.S. the decline over the last two months.
2nd is the MSNBC chart that shows U.S. weekly not only the current FMac rates
but where they fit in a 5 year view
3rd is the weekly Paper Economy chart which shows U.S. both 30 & 15yr rates
------------
The next three Sold on Top charts from The Paper Economy blog
show U.S. not only MBA mortgage apps, but, this is a big but...
they show U.S. a "refinance index" AND a purchase index
along with the composite that you will usually see.
This IS significant, bcuz which is going up and which is going down
and by how much is very different depending on the movement in RE rates.
Since they do move independently, and since the refi index is much more volitile
this separation is much like that for single home vs multi-unit starts.
Not showing U.S. them separately simply distorts in info we need.
Sold is one of very few that do that for U.S.
----------
bonds, treasuries, qe2, inflation
----------
alt text
----------
30-year fixed mortgage rates chart
-------------
-----------
---------

-------------

==========
Freddie Mac mortgage interest rates inch up this week
----------
Bumpy ride for Treasuries in first quarter

Friday, April 1, 2011

Analyst Blog: Jobs Report in Depth, pt. 1, 2 and 3

[mEDITate-OR:
see something interesting...
but be far to busy to read the full explanation...
-----------
While we have oft told you about the great charts from CR, and others.
we have not mentioned oft enough the very good analyses that are put out by by: Dirk van Dijk, CFA, @ Zacks.
Below are his borrowed charts.
Below that are his most recent explanatory articles about "employment".
These are must reads.
----------

-----------
 
-------------

---------------

-----------

----------

==========
Analyst Blog  
Jobs Report in Depth, pt. 1
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/50472/Jobs+Report+in+Depth%2C+pt.+1
==========
Jobs Report In-Depth, pt. 2
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/50503/Jobs+Report+In-Depth,+pt.+2
==============
Jobs Report In-Depth, pt. 3
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/50512/Jobs+Report+In-Depth%2C+pt.+3
==========

Jobs Picture Brightened Slightly in March with 216,000 Added + As Jobs Improve, Long-Term Unemployment Remains a Big Problem

[mEDITate-OR:
mis-read The News that sweeping the Nation...
----------
These are a set of jobs/UI charts that must be seen.
There are a couple of articles that must be read.
-------
Fail Not, at your peril.
-------------

According to Colin Barr @ Fortune in "Job seekers' lost decade" there are 7 million of U.S. less employed than at W's peak. There are no more currently employed and there are 30 million more of U.S. than when W was elected.

This is supported by Ms C's article in Economix: "A Long, Slow Slog Back to Normal"
and by Bill@CR's chart @ http://cr4re.com/charts/charts...

According to Ms C - IF job growth was up to 450K per month, we would be back to "W's normal" by the end of BO's current term in office.
Not even ONE (1) month in the last decade has created that many jobs.

The average is equal to the current level.

At the current level - this month and last - we will not be back to "W's normal" until AFTER the term of whichever President succeeds BO - 2016.

So, where, precisely, Daniel, is all that progress you think you see?

As they said in the Emergency Room: "We know that you aren't/can't be bleeding to death, bcuz you appear to be still alive!"

-------------
We trust, of course, that our comment to your prior post will be accepted as an April Fools Joke.

True, our mother's did warn us that someday we would probably go blind; but this post suggests that you are not there, yet.

My problem with your problem is that you STILL are looking at what "They" are telling U.S. about "The UN-employment Problem".

What you do NOT see - true, Daniel, not bcuz you are not looking; but bcuz they are hiding it from U.S. - is The Fact that when we compare the number of people who ARE working, with the number of U.S. more now, the numbers simply do NOT compute - unless you admit that there are almost unbelievably large number of U.S. who would love to find/have a job, and cannot.

Let me be Frank with you - oh, we know, we always get to be frank:

What if all of those lost souls DID have jobs; and were paying taxes? Into local, state & federal budgets? Into SS, Medicaid and Medicare? Into Walmart & Best Buy, et al?

Where would all of U.S. be now?

The most obvious solution to (y)our problemS is to cut even more; and closer to the bone.

Or, so thought "The Circumcised Cynic".

Disirregardless, Daniel, great two article.
-----------
-----------
----------
-----------
-----------
-----------
duration stats 2011-03.png
-----------
=========
Jobs Picture Brightened Slightly in March with 216,000 Added
------------
As Jobs Improve, Long-Term Unemployment Remains a Big Problem
==========

Government Foreclosure Prevention Reports More Lackluster Results + aka, a total failure, as they intended

[mEDITate-OR:
believe them, when they say that they only did "it" to you...
bcuz they loveD (doing it to?) you.
----------
This is possibly the most disgusting thing that Timidly Getmore, and Barack, have done to U.S.

Given (?) to U.S. by them, & the ridiculously low results, tis impossible to argue - although they still will/do; or believe - which none of U.S. did/or/do; that they ever had any intention for this to work. Was no more, or less, than "a cover up" of bankster fraud.

When Richard Nixon was caught lying to U.S., he had the decency left, or is that being right, to resign.

Not only will TG-etmore not resign, nor will BO-blivious fire him, but both will be richly - both figuratively and literally - rewarded for this "fraud in the inception", "fraud in the execution", and "grossly negligent" and intentional fraud.

Not only did TG-etmine and BO-bscurate NOT increase any of the taxes on the richest of U.S., they intentionally transferred Trillions of US$ from (y)our pockets into their friends. The poorest of U.S. who voted for BO have not suffered all that much -we had nothing left to loose. The richest - both those who paid to put BO into office, and those who voted against him - have reaped stunning amounts of cash & equity.

The once, and never more, middle class has been literally and figuratively skewered (sp).

------------

===========
Government Foreclosure Prevention Reports More Lackluster Results
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/04/government-foreclosure-prevention-reports-more-lackluster-results/73344/
==========