[mEDITate-OR:
miss completely, how stunning the collapse has been in Miami/Tampa and in LossVegas/Phoenix.
see those four cities at the bottom of the 1st chart.
The 2nd chart shows U.S. how bad the 3rd & 4th quarters were last year in Seattle.
The 3rd chart shows U.S. that Seattle & Portland appear to moving in different directions, now.
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JGBellHimself
But, first a little "revisionist RE history" - as in back to The Truth.
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Said you, Tim: "the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow"
Asked we, on SN,L: "Oh Really?"
Do you remember Jan 08, when the private MBS industry had totally collapsed, removing US$ 1.5 Trillion from the funds available for home loans? Do you remember in July 08, when the Chinese informed U.S. that they would stop buying US$ 35-45 Billion of GSE securities PER MONTH? And the other half of the RE funding system collapsed? Do you remember W "nationalizing" FMae&FMac? And, why?
What, precisely, Tim, was "normal" about 2008? The whole funding system for ALL new RE loans simply disappeared, leaving you, Tim, unable to sell you home - except to an all cash buyer. Oh, or to hold your own RE contract. What "interest" did you have in that?
Then over US$ 2.5 Trillion of bad ARMs and subprime RE loans originated by YOUR banksters at WAMU in the Sand States, like po' ol' AZ, collapsed. Leaving almost everyone here more than 50% underwater or down from the peak bubble values. What precisely did "the government" do to create and/or destroy those private Wall Street bankster MBSs? What was "normal" about all that Tim?
With the flood of foreclosures, the home building lobby - all those GD Democrats - supported a First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit. Of course, you remember that, but do you remember what the new home building starts and sales numbers WOULD have been without that sales stimulus? Do you wish to be "predictive" of how far down we would be Far Right now if W had not "nationalized" FMae&FMac? Oh, and guaranteed the Chinese their "investments" in them would now be safe - fully guaranteed by the full faith and credit of all of U.S.!! What was "normal" about all that Tim?
After an accident many years ago the doctor finally told me we were "back to normal". When we told our best fiend, at the time, he said: "Frankly, we were all hoping for a little better than that."
Are we really "back to normal", Tim? Mind telling U.S., precisely, when and/or where that occurred?
A few tax credit dollars bothers you, does it? How much did we "loan" the auto industry - per job created? What did we get for the US$ 3 Trillion we have spent in Iraq and Afghanistan? Peace in our time?
And, now we will return the control of your TV set back to you - until your next visit to The Twilight Zone.
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Tim, the slope of your CS - Seattle home price index (BELOW), from Sep to Feb is stunning. What a "downer"!
Has it really been THAT bad? Do we - you, me and U.S. - have any reason to believe that the 2nd half of this year will not be that bad, too? Don't know if you are trying to sober U.S. up, or drive U.S. to drink.
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Recently, we compared the last five year M2M for Seattle-Portland with LossVegas-Phoenix. SeaPo did show slight selling season gains, but then dropped back down lower every Y2Y. LossPho had NO upticks at all, only slightly slower losses in the selling seasons. Simply all down hill.
IF it ain't over until The Fat Lady sings, what are we gonna do, if she ain't fat no' mo'???
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Note the time/year shift between SeaPo and LossDiego
Later to the party, but now worse off.
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Seattle Bubble Blog
Case-Shiller: Spring Bounce Continues Slightly Weakened
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/07/26/case-shiller-spring-bounce-continues-slightly-weakened/
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