Residential Mortgage Application Volumes Continue to Slide in U.S. in Mid-December + U.S. Consumer Credit Default Rates Increase in November; Mortgages Leading All Categories

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder why it looks so bad
when "They" say that every thing is looking up, again, to them.
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The Refinance Index decreased 24.6 percent from the previous week.
The Refinance Index has declined six straight weeks and is at its lowest level since the week ending April 30, 2010.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier.
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The four-week moving average of the purchase index is at about the levels of 1997
- and about 17% below the levels of April this year
 - suggesting weak existing home sales through January 2011.
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Residential Mortgage Application Volumes Continue to Slide in U.S. in Mid-December
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/mortgage-bankers-association-mba-weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-market-composite-index-mortgage-loan-application-volume-mortgage-rates-rising-interest-rates-3651.php
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U.S. Consumer Credit Default Rates Increase in November
Mortgages Leading All Categories
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/home-affordable-refinance-program-harp-home-affordable-modification-program-hamp-modified-loans-loan-default-rates-freddie-mac-fannie-mae-3646.php
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MBA: Mortgage Refinance activity declines sharply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/mba-mortgage-refinance-activity.html
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Why I Would Raise Taxes + Health Reform Without a Public Plan: The German Model

[mEDITate-OR;
find these two charts VERY confusing.

1st chart -- the ONLY time we paid enough to cover our costs - for Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid AND for two war in Iraq and Afghanistan...
were under William Jefferson Clinton.
2nd chart -- we are the ONLY major country that has very low taxes AND pretends that WE are the world's leader.

Not only do those same countries have less expensive medical care, it is fully funded AND covers everyone.
And, they are NOT all using "socialized medicine"

If you have any interest in "The Truth", you will like these two very informative articles.
IF you do NOT want to hear anything that conflicts with what you KNOW is true...
well..., as RonnieR told U.S., get ready for a huge surprise...
incoming, soon, from China.
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============
Why I Would Raise Taxes
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/why-i-would-raise-taxes/
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Health Reform Without a Public Plan: The German Model
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/health-reform-without-a-public-plan-the-german-model/
==========

Not-so-happy tale of the Gasoline Grinch = Gas prices near $3 a gallon = Highest price ever at Christmas comes at the worst time for holiday drive

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder how you're gonna get to Grandmother's house...
bcuz, since you couldn't afford to buy HER a present...
you called to ask her to "put yours in the mail"...
before Congress shuts the USPO down.

Oddly, dear ol gannie told you where to "stick it"
if you don't show up to get it

But, not to worry, Caesar Chavez is making out like the bandit he is...
and
The Gulf oil states..., like IRAN...!!!
---------

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Not-so-happy tale of the Gasoline Grinch
Highest price ever at Christmas comes at the worst time for holiday drive
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40798602/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
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Gas prices near $3 a gallon
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/13/news/economy/three_dollar_gas/index.htm
==========

About the Fortune Finance article below by Colin Barr

What we NEED to see, and understand, is the point that he is making
- while the EURO and the US$ swing up and down with regard to each other
with China tagging - or is that pegging - along.

BOTH the EURO and the US$ are falling all over the world.
As Colin points to the Swiss Franc
to be Frank with U.S.
readers/commentors as Seeking Alpha point out that this is ALSO true
with regard to the Australian & Canadian dollars...
and most other currencies of stable, growing economies.

---------
What Colin ALSO pointed out is that their is a mass exodus from Govt 10yr bonds
from Germany, Japan, the UK and from U.S.
What THAT means is that short term interest has been driven UP.
That has transferred into a huge rise in (Y)our home mortgage costs.

Can China play Santa for the euro? Is China Claus about to deliver a heart-warming ending to the euro crisis?

[mEDITate-OR:
not even no the question or the answer...
to the China Problems...
and
The EURO problem...
and
all the problems of U.S.
----------

Made in China?
----------

Why would China use trade surplus dollars, not from U.S. this time, but from Europe, their largest trading partner, as in exports to, to bail out some/many/most of the weak PIIGS?

--------
Well, we're glad you asked U.S. that question. Why wouldn't they try to stabilize the wild EURO swings against the US$ and their largest export market? Huge swings in exports to Europe is NOT what the Chinese economy need right now. China last decade loaned U.S. almost US$ 1 Trillion so we could fight two wars without raising taxes, and so we could buy MacMansions. We were their most important customer last decade, Europe is in this one.
-------
Why did China announce that they would lend to themselves the SAME amount next year as last year? Bcuz, they NEED stable and steady growth to offset any trade losses in either Europe OR with U.S.
--------
What you should be asking, Colin, is whether China is going to use its trade dollars to help Europe, but not U.S.
-------

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=========

Can China play Santa for the euro?
Is China Claus about to deliver a heart-warming ending to the euro crisis?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/23/can-china-play-santa-for-the-euro/
========

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall Amid Steep Drop In Transportation Orders

[mEDITate-OR:
not find that we do not find the growth that we were told we could see

What "They" did not mention when they yelled about all the auto orders
was that most of them were pickup trucks.
and fleet sales.
What people "rent" at the airport is not what they buy for their kids.
nor for themselves.
But, this month even those sales collapsed.
What now?
---------------

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall

Amid Steep Drop In Transportation Orders

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/ForexTopStory.aspx?Id=1513836&SM=1

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U.S. Existing Homes Sale Up 5.6% in November, Median Prices Remain Flat

[mEDITate-OR:
think that everybody shared in this glorious news...
and not just, The West, aka, Californicates your data..
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============

Daniel, inquiry:

Are those your charts or NARs?

According to Calculated Risk, "sales" are seasonally adjusted, but "inventory" is not.

So, not only is there that disconnect, but listings always decline in Dec, Jan & Feb.

Disirregardless, thanks for noting for U.S. that "mortgage apps" declined, a lot. 

What you are showing are "closed" transactions.

We need to watch NARs "pendings" and MBAs "mtg apps" over the next few months. Please do, for U.S., THANKS

==========

U.S. Existing Homes Sale Up 5.6% in November

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/existing-home-sales-up-56-in-november/68414/

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U.S. Homes Sale Up 5.6% in November, Median Prices Remain Flat

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-sales-existing-home-sales-in-november-national-association-of-realtors-nar-number-of-homes-sold-in-us-lawrence-yun-realtor-mls-listings-3652.php

=======

Jobless Claims drop 3,000 from last week to 420,000, but an increase in continued unemployment claims.

[mEDITate-OR:

believe that new UI claim dropped back to unheard of levels...

and

then be shocked, not just, but shocked, that was only 3,000 souls.

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Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 3,000 Last Week to 420,000

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-23/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased-3-000-last-week-to-420-000.html

========

New Home Sales Struggled Again in November - rise 5.5% in November from October - Still Very Low

[mEDITate-OR:

dislike another view of another's views

-------

An entry below has CR charts and comments,

these are other media's thoughts & views.

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It's important to keep in mind how low sales were in October to put November's 5.5% increase in context.

If October's original sales rate hadn't been revised, November's increase would have been just 2.5%

-----------

The seven lowest months on record (back to 1963) for new home sales have all been in the last seven months.

----------

Regionally, things were all over the map.

New home sales in the West soared by 37.3% on the month but are down 16.5%% year over year.

The South is the biggest and therefore most important of the Census regions when it comes to housing data it was up 5.8% on the month, but down 12.7% from a year ago.

Worst hit for both the month was the Northeast. There sales plunged 26.7% on the month and are off 29.0% from a year ago.

Sales in the Midwest were off 13.3% from September and are down 53.5% from a year ago, easily making it the hardest hit on a year-over-year basis.

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New Home Sales Up 5.5% in November but Still Very Low
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/new-home-sales-up-55-in-november-but-still-very-low/68470/
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Sales of newly built homes rise 5.5% in November from October
The increase is the second indication this week that the housing market is showing signs of stability.
But sales were still 21.2% below November 2009.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-new-home-sales-20101224,0,2352353.story
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Home Sales Struggled Again in November
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/business/economy/24econ.html
=========

Has the Fed 'Walked Away' From Housing? + The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market

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============
Has the Fed 'Walked Away' From Housing?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/243472-has-the-fed-walked-away-from-housing?source=dashboard_macro-view
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The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market
http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2010/el1014.html
==========

Comments on November Personal Income and Outlays Report

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that it IS turning around...
and why.
-----------
The two-month method of estimating real PCE growth for Q4 (a fairly accurate method), suggests real PCE growth of 4.3% in Q4!
So this looks like a pretty strong quarter for growth in personal consumption.
The last time real PCE grew at more than 4% was in 2006.
-------------

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=========
Comments on November Personal Income and Outlays Report
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/comments-on-november-personal-income.html
==========

Lawler: Overall Housing Stock Growth Likely to Slow Even Further in 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
not ask some questions that NEED to be asked...
and
then be given info that not only we need, to understand...
but that helps us see other things we would not see.
------------
For some unknown reason, many housing “analysts” who talk about housing “supply” (shadow inventory, listings, etc.) do not even MENTION the outlook for the supply of the aggregate housing stock!!!!!!!
-------------
When we discuss residential investment and real GDP growth in 2011, we are talking about growth from the levels at the end of 2010.
Even though the overall housing production might be lower in 2011 (per Lawler's forecast), residential investment will probably make a positive contribution to GDP growth for the first time since 2005
-----------

==========
Lawler: Overall Housing Stock Growth Likely to Slow Even Further in 2011
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/lawler-overall-housing-stock-growth.html
========

Older Workers and the Lump of Labor Fallacy + Toil and Trouble By PAULA SPAN

[mEDITate-OR:
be shocked, yes shocked, that times they are a'chang'n
-----------
The participation rate is trending up for all older age groups.
Unfortunately Span concluded:
So to that Wisconsin reader who grumped, “Too many older people (professors, Morley Safer, etc.) continue to work for selfish reasons, thereby taking jobs from the young and unemployed” — I’m afraid you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
That is a classic lump of labor fallacy. This is a common error people make with immigration - that immigrants displace other workers, when in fact immigration increases the size of the economy. I suspect we will see more and more of this age related "lump of labor" fallacy. The number of jobs in the economy is not fixed, and people staying in the work force just means the economy will be larger.
-------------
You need to read, and think, about this.
---------

===========
Older Workers and the Lump of Labor Fallacy
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/older-workers-and-lump-of-labor-fallacy.html
----------
Toil and Trouble
By PAULA SPAN
http://newoldage.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/toil-and-trouble/
=====

New Home Sales weak in November

[mEDITate-OR:
not see a very interesting re-interpretation of CR's wonderful charts
--------
Dirk van Dijk, CFA, in the 2nd article below takes a brand new take on CR.
Both of these are worth reading.
But, this is from Dirk:

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It's important to keep in mind how low sales were in October to put November's 5.5% increase in context.

If October's original sales rate hadn't been revised, November's increase would have been just 2.5%

-----------

The seven lowest months on record (back to 1963) for new home sales have all been in the last seven months.

----------

Regionally, things were all over the map.

New home sales in the West soared by 37.3% on the month but are down 16.5%% year over year.

The South is the biggest and therefore most important of the Census regions when it comes to housing data it was up 5.8% on the month, but down 12.7% from a year ago.

Worst hit for both the month was the Northeast. There sales plunged 26.7% on the month and are off 29.0% from a year ago.

Sales in the Midwest were off 13.3% from September and are down 53.5% from a year ago, easily making it the hardest hit on a year-over-year basis.

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New Home Sales weak in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/new-home-sales-weak-in-november.html
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New Home Sales Disappoint
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/45100/New+Home+Sales+Disappoint
===========

$305 on gas this month - Bah! Humbug! + Oil settles above $90 - up 11% this month

[mEDITate-OR:
"What me worry" about getting to grandma's house for Christmas...
on time &/or under budget.
And,
not see how wise ol' Santa was to use reindeers to create his "parting (sp?) wind power.
----------
Please note - if you compare the first and last charts, you will see that the recent "crude" (no pun intended, before Christmas) has NOT reached your gas pumps - yet.
---------

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Oil prices haven't settled above $90 a barrel since October of 2008.

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Gas prices near $3 a gallon
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/13/news/economy/three_dollar_gas/index.htm
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$305 on gas this month - Bah! Humbug!
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/21/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm
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Oil settles above $90
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/22/markets/copper_commodities/index.htm
===========

Buy vs. Rent: An Update

[mEDITate-OR:
not know that what you are paid controls what you can afford to pay...
Disirregardless, the differences between Seattle-Portland and the San Francisco Bay area are very small. While all of them are MUCH higher than Manhatten, NY or Washington DC.
And, tis shocking, shocking we say, to see how low Las Vegas and Phoenix are down below.

The reason for the last is, of course, the effects of both the boom/peak and now the foreclosures.
Stunning, numbers.
--------------
It’s pretty amazing when you think about it. The country has suffered through a terrible crash in home prices, yet buying a house remains an iffy proposition in many markets.
----------
Below is an updated list of rent ratios — the price of a typical home divided by the annual cost of renting that home — for 55 metropolitan areas across the country. most ratios have not changed much since then.
A good rule of thumb is that you should often buy when the ratio is below 15 and rent when the ratio is above 20. If it’s between 15 and 20, lean toward renting — unless you find a home you really like and expect to stay there for many years.
-------------

Metro area	Ratio
East Bay, Calif.	35.9
Honolulu	34.4
San Jose, Calif.	32.7
San Francisco	27.9
Seattle	27.3
Charlotte, N.C.	27
Orange County, Calif.	27
New York (Manhattan)	26.7
Raleigh, N.C.	26.2
Portland, Ore.	25.9
North – Central New Jersey	25.2
Nashville	24
Denver	22.6
San Diego	22.1
Long Island, N.Y.	21.4
Milwaukee	21.4
Austin, Tex.	20.5
Norfolk, Va.	19.9
Richmond	19.7
Memphis	19.3
Bridgeport, Conn.	18.5
Hartford	18.4
Boston	18.4
Washington – Northern Virginia – Maryland	18.3
Oklahoma City	18.2
Baltimore	17.6
Columbus, Ohio	17.6
Palm Beach County, Fla.	17.6
Salt Lake City	17.6
Sacramento	16.7
San Antonio	16.7
Chicago	16.6
New Orleans	16.2
Philadelphia	16.1
Houston	15.9
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	15.7
Miami	15.6
New York	15.4
Los Angeles	15.4
Kansas City, Kan.	15.3
Inland Empire, Calif.	15.1
National average for metro areas	15.1
Indianapolis	15.1
Jacksonville, Fla.	15
Minneapolis	14.9
St. Louis	14.6
Las Vegas	14.3
Atlanta	14.3
Orlando, Fla.	14.1
Tampa, Fla.	14
Cincinnati	13.9
Dallas – Fort Worth	13.8
Phoenix	13.3
Detroit	12.4
Cleveland	11.7
Pittsburgh	11.4

========
Buy vs. Rent: An Update
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/buy-vs-rent-an-update/
========

November Existing Home Sales: 4.68 million SAAR, 9.5 months of supply

[mEDITate-OR:
spend too little time looking at, and reading, CRs charts & articles.

If these still are not the best available, show me any better.
-----------
The bottom line: Sales were weak in November - below consensus and close to Tom Lawler's forecast - and existing home sales will continue to be weak for some time.
Inventory is very high, and the year-over-year increase in inventory is very concerning. The high level of inventory will continue to put downward pressure on house prices.
-----------
IMPORTANT: On a seasonal basis, inventory usually bottoms in December and January, and then will start increasing again in February and March. Since the NAR "months-of-supply" metric uses Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales, but Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) inventory, this seasonal decline in inventory will lead to a lower "months-of-supply" in December and January. I expect inventory in December to decline to around 3.4 million units, and the months-of-supply to fall to the mid-to-high 8s.
The key is to recognize the seasonal pattern, and watch the YoY change in inventory.
-----------

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Inventory increased 5.4% YoY in November.
The year-over-year increase in inventory is especially bad news because the reported inventory is very high (3.71 million), and the 9.5 months of supply in November is well above normal.

=========
Sales in November 2010 (4.68 million SAAR) were 5.6% higher than last month, and were 27.9% lower than November 2009. 

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Months of supply decreased to 9.5 months in November from 10.5 months in October.
This is very high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will continue to decline.

========
Existing Home Inventory increases 5.4% Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/existing-home-inventory-increases-54.html
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November Existing Home Sales: 4.68 million SAAR, 9.5 months of supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/november-existing-home-sales-468.html
==========

Employment Growth Lags GDP in Recoveries

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder who really is on first....
jobs..., housing..., manufacturing..., exports..., agriculture...?

Inquiring minds, those who want to know...
will enjoy reading this interesting article.
U can 2
-----------

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Employment Growth Lags GDP in Recoveries
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242753-employment-growth-lags-gdp-in-recoveries
=======

Weighing Costs, Companies Favor Temporary Help VS Should the Rise in Temporary Workers Scare Us? VS Explaining the Statistics on Temporary Hires

[mEDITate-OR:
Finally, we will not miss out on a wonderful debate, between economists...!!!

But, this issue is very important for U.S., and you, two, too, may be missing something critical.
IF employers are hiring new, part- timers
and not full-timers...
what are they really doing?

One argument is that they are cherry picking those out of work with the best skill sets, and by picking up more part-timers than full-timers they are simply maximizing their current opportunities.

What we also think they are doing, since the layoff & fires are about equal to new hires...!!!
is to "replace" current lower quality employees with newer, cheaper, higher quality workers.
Again, maximizing their "golden", to them but not U.S., opportunity.

IF this "replacement" shift is taking place, both of you may be economically correct, but missing the real point.
------------
The articles are in the order published: 1st Motoko Rich, 2nd Daniel Indiviglio rejoinder, and 3rd Motoko's rejoinder.
The 1st chart is from NYTimes
The next 2 are from Atlantic.
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Weighing Costs, Companies Favor Temporary Help
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/20/business/economy/20temp.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general
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Should the Rise in Temporary Workers Scare Us?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/should-the-rise-in-temporary-workers-scare-us/68293/
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Explaining the Statistics on Temporary Hires
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/20/explaining-the-statistics-on-temporary-hires/
======