Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Revisions: Real GDP and PCE well below previous peak = Q2: real annualized GDP growth slows to 2.4%

[mEDITate-OR:
learn how bad it was...
and how much worse that "They" were telling U.S.

Welcome to "Revisionist history" week.
Not only are the jobless numbers being revised...
not only are the housing numbers being revised...
but, and this is NO joke, here are the new, improved GDP numbers.

What is interesting is that while they are "revised"
they are now telling U.S. that the latest numbers are also "skewed"
The "housing" component is totally out of whack, for a couple more months.
My guess = then the price of oil will ruin everything.
As SNL pointed out to U.S.:
      If its not one thing..., its another.

What WAS already ugly, is now even uglier.

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A few key numbers:
"Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first."
PCE is slowing.
Investment: Nonresidential structures increased 5.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 17.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 21.9 percent, compared with an increase of 20.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 27.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 12.3 percent.
Residential investment was boosted by the tax credit and will decline in Q3.
"The change in real private inventories added 1.05 percentage points to the second-quarter changein real GDP after adding 2.64 percentage points to the first-quarter change."
That is probably the end of the inventory adjustment.
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Revisions: Real GDP and PCE well below previous peak
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/revisions-real-gdp-and-pce-far-away.html
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Q2: real annualized GDP growth slows to 2.4%
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/q2-real-annualized-gdp-growth-slows-to.html
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