Consumer + Import and export + Producer = prices in November 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that
"It's the price of oil, stupid!"

While the cost of used vehicles exceeds both new and everything else...
tis the cost of energy that is causing most if not all of the inflationary pressure on U.S.

In all  three measured sectors - consumer, imports and produced goods
what is costing U.S. more is
3     food
2     medical care
and
1st   energy
----------

--------------

------------

=============
BLS = TED: The Editor's Desk
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/
============

Foreclosuregate Drives 21% Plummet in November Foreclosure Activity

[mEDITate-OR:
----------
Daniel, very nice charts.

While you are correct about the drop off and that they will go back up again, shortly; what you may not have seen is the bump up just before the robo-crisis. What they did do was expedite as many as they could prior to being held accountable for buying forged, fraudulent docs.

What you, and they, are NOT showing U.S. are the size of the shadow REO inventory - all of those that have been foreclosed and/or repossessed, that have not been listed for sale, even yet. And, while those numbers will be very interesting, what you also do not show U.S. is the number of post-foreclosure RE sales currently being sold VS the non-foreclosure sales. THAT will tell U.S. whether they are still selling "bad titles" to U.S.; and whether or not WE are still buying them.

Even if they did not complete one (1) more foreclosure over the next 12 months, they would still have more REOs to sell U.S. than we are currently buying from them. So, unless you can show U.S. that their sales of REOs and/or the prices they received have gone down, "They" have not, in fact, lost a penny, yet.

---------

-----------

------------

=========
Foreclosuregate Drives 21% Plummet in November Foreclosure Activity
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/foreclosuregate-drives-21-plummet-in-november-foreclosure-activity/68134/
========

Tax deal: A weak stimulus + Working poor take home less under tax deal + 51 million will take home less

[mEDITate-OR:

not see the true cost(s)...

and what the benefits ARE

vs

what they c/w/should have been.

Even IF we give the most rosy view of the so-called "compromise" as CNN does, it is still not a very good deal. IF, however, we use the least rosy view, this is a very, VERY BAD deal, for U.S.

And, in the 2nd chart we see how puny the tax on the very rich was. "Much adieu about nothing", much.

However, when we look at the last chart, we see what works best.

Then compare what we DID, vs what we c/w/should have done.

------------

--------------

---------

----------

========
Forgetting about Demand, Once Again
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/12/forgetting_abou.html
-------------
Shades of Grey
http://nutwoodjunction.blogspot.com/2010/12/shades-of-grey.html
=========

Phoenix homes more affordable than in 2000 = Foreclosure Trends + Google Trends & demand for “Arizona homes”

[mEDITate-OR:
miss John Wake's very informative web site and charts.
-----------
In these three charts, we see that foreclosures did appear to have peaked & started to drop, and then started back up. However, this chart does not show U.S. the "Robosigning" effect, so the next quarter should show a decline, and the quarter after that a sharp increase. Long term numbers are simply unknowable.
-------
The 3rd chart is unique to John, and shows a steady decline in Google home searches, from the peak in 05 to the collapse beginning in 06. Note that Phoenix, like the other sand states began to collapse long before the rest of U.S.
---------
The 2nd chart from FMae shows U.S. the before N after.
Note: that while the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ clearly show that things are almost back to pre-WBush levels, WAnOR do not.
NOTE: that WA & OR were very late getting to the party, and currently are dropping faster than the sand states. Meaning that they are NOT back to normal - yet.
------------
Arizona Real Estate Notebook
“Wake Up and Call John!”
- John Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/
----------

------------

--------

=========
Maricopa County Foreclosure Trends
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2010/12/09/maricopa-county-foreclosure-trends/
------------
Google Trends & demand for “Arizona homes”
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2010/12/15/google-trends-demand-for-arizona-homes/
-----------
Phoenix homes more affordable than in 2000
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2010/12/16/phoenix-homes-more-affordable-than-in-2000/
=========

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline 3.000 to 420,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think that we are making really great progress...
when we are not.

Mark Perry shows U.S. our Christmas present.
His 1st chart has a minor little statistical problem, however.
Note that HIS charts starts at 400,000 new claims.
Note that Jim&CR shows U.S. that THAT number is where we appear to be stuck.

What Mark did NOT tell U.S. was that new claims MUST drop below 325,000 new claims BEFORE we will even begin to bring back to work the real unemployed - and that will take U.S. almost five (5) years to do it.
-------------

-------------

------------

-----------

==========
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 420,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_16.html
-----------
Initial unemployment claims drop 3,000 from last week
A new jobless claims report 3,000 fewer initial claims than last week, but an increase in continued unemployment claims
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2010/1216/Initial-unemployment-claims-drop-3-000-from-last-week
===========

Housing Starts Up, Permits Down

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the very good analysis from Zacks in the 1st article
which uses the great charts from Jim@CR.
The article is a "highly recommended read".
---------------
First, note that in the 1st CR chart single homes ARE separated from multi-units.
-------------
If one looks at only single-family houses, the improvement was somewhat better, rising to 465,000 from 435,000 in October (revised down slightly from 436,000), an increase of 6.9%. The volatile multi-family (condo and co-op) sector plunged 18.2% to an annual rate of just 72,000 (although October was revised much higher to 88,000 from 74,000 units).
----------
Multi-units are VERY volatile, so we need a moving average for them.
-----------
CR's 2nd chart is unique - showing U.S. "empty" homes.
What CR cannot show U.S. is:
a)   How many homes are still occupied, but the resident is NOT paying their mortgage.
b)   How many "foreclosed" homes there are, sitting empty in the shadow inventory.
So, as bad as it looks, tis actually much worse.
-------

-----------

-----------

========
Housing Starts Up, Permits Down
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/44776/Housing+Starts+Up,+Permits+Down
------------
Housing Starts increase slightly in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/housing-starts-increase-slightly-in.html
=======

US Housing data: Housing Starts rise 3.9% - for first time since Aug - while Building Permits fell 4% & Completions fell 14%

[mEDITate-OR:
think that this was, from the headlines, an improvement.
Not hardly.
The gritty details:
------------
The housing starts and building permits data failed to meet market forecasts
which were expecting housing starts to increase by 6.0 percent
and building permits to rise by 1.5 percent for the month.
-------------
Even with the gain, housing starts are just 16 percent above the 477,000 unit pace from April 2009 — the lowest point on records dating back to 1959.
they are down 76 percent from their peak in January 2006,
and 45 percent below the 1 million annual rate that analysts say is consistent with a healthy housing market.
All the activity last month came from building single-family homes.
They increased to a pace of 465,000 units, a 6.9 percent rise from October.
Apartment construction fell 9.1 percent to a unit pace of 90,000.
--------

---------------

------------

===========
Housing Starts and New Permits Remain Weak in November
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/housing-starts-and-new-permits-remain-weak-in-november/68115/
-------------
U.S. November Housing Starts Rise 3.9% But Building Permits Fall
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopStories.aspx?Node=B1&Id=1508683
=========

The 99ers Are Coming = How Many Weeks of Unemployment Compensation Are Available?

[mEDITate-OR:
are they not "incoming" to The Party...
that laced the US$ 1 Trillion budget for U.S. with "earmarks"..
"The $1.2 trillion measure includes more than 6,700 earmarks totaling $8.1 billion"
many, provided U.S. by Senators who voted against anymore earmarks
Proving too Far Right, once again, that:
"a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"...!!!
As Pooh warned U.S. = Politicians, Being as they are...
(or something like that)
-------------

--------------

---------------

===========
The 99ers Are Coming
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/the-99ers-are-coming/
--------------
How Many Weeks of Unemployment Compensation Are Available?
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3164
----------

For later charts & numbers:

http://www.offthechartsblog.org/behind-the-jobless-benefits-debate-6-what-happens-with-no-federal-emergency-unemployment-insurance/

============

CEPR: CPI Edges Up 0.1 Percent = Rents slowly accelerate amidst slowing medical care and falling vehicle prices + Twelve days of Christmas cost 9 percent more this year

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that not much is more expensive...
except for Christmas...!!!

US budget only up US$ 1 Trillion....
huge increase in retail sales, for Christmas...
high unemployment & bankruptcies...
But, they stopped foreclosing on U.S...
so we could stay at home..., until after Christmas.
-----------

-------------

-------------

-------

----------

------------

=========
CEPR: CPI Edges Up 0.1 Percent
Rents slowly accelerate amidst slowing medical care and falling vehicle prices
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/data-bytes/prices-bytes/2010-12
-------------
Twelve days of Christmas cost 9 percent more this year
http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=532514
=======

Inflation: Core CPI, Median CPI, 16% trimmed-mean CPI remain below 1% YoY + Inflation Subdued, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Edge Upward

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that these are very different from the charts in the blog entry above....
-----------
Over the last 12 months
the median CPI rose 0.5%
the trimmed-mean CPI rose 0.8%
the CPI rose 1.1%
and the CPI less food and energy rose 0.8%
-----------
So, not only is is very low
it is below "the expectation"...!!!
shown in the 3rd chart below
=========
This graph shows these three measure of inflation on a year-over-year basis.
They all show that inflation has been falling, and that measured inflation is up less than 1% year-over-year.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has a discussion of a number of measures of inflation: Measuring Inflation
-------------
The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both increased in November.
It appears that rents have bottomed and are starting to increase again (this fits with earlier reports of falling vacancy rates and rising rents). I don't expect rents to push up inflation very much (I think core inflation will stay low for some time with all the slack in the system), but rising rents suggests that the excess rental housing units are being absorbed - a necessary step for an eventual recovery in residential investment.

------------
both inflation and expected inflation remain below the Fed’s long-run target values, something that will increase the Fed’s confidence that it can keep inflation under control as it pursues QEII.

===========
Inflation: Core CPI, Median CPI
16% trimmed-mean CPI remain below 1% YoY
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/inflation-core-cpi-median-cpi-16.html
---------
Inflation Subdued, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Edge Upward
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/maximum-utility/inflation-subdued-industrial-production-and-capacity-utilization-edge-upward/1048/
============

Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increase in November

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that these "production" charts are very different than the blog entry below this.

While "utilization" is obviously up
please note that it is barely up from the bottom of the prior 01-2 recession.
-----------
This graph shows Capacity Utilization.
This series is up 10.3% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 75.2% is still far below normal
and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

----------
Industrial production increased in November, but production is still 6.8% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

=========
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increase in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/industrial-production-capacity.html
==========

U.S. Industrial Production Rises 0.4% Amid Rebound In Utilities Output

[mEDITate-OR:
not see things building UP...
--------------

------------

-----------

-----------------

----------------

=====
U.S. Industrial Production Rises 0.4% Amid Rebound In Utilities Output
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1507435&SM=1
------------
Industrial Production in Pictures
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242105-industrial-production-in-pictures
------------
U.S. Economy: Industrial Production Rises, Inflation Slows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-15/industrial-production-in-u-s-rises-more-than-forecast-on-electronic-goods.html
======

Q3 2010: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal + CoreLogic: 10.8 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q3

[mEDITate-OR:
get that sinking feeling, and not know why...
-------------
For Q3 2010, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $86 billion, or a negative 3.0% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This is not seasonally adjusted.

-----------
This graph shows the distribution of negative equity (and near negative equity). The more negative equity, the more at risk the homeowner is to losing their home.

-----------
The second graph shows the break down of equity by state.
In Nevada very few homeowners with mortgages have any equity, whereas in New York almost half have over 50%.

==========
Q3 2010: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/q3-2010-mortgage-equity-withdrawal.html
-------------
CoreLogic: 10.8 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q3
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/corelogic-108-million-us-properties.html
===========

U.S. trade deficit narrows to $38.7 billion = Lowest deficit since January + China exports, imports surge in November

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how much we stopped buying in 08
that we started to buy, again
and now are still buying more, but exporting too.
China, on the other hand is BUYING there way out of surpluses.
Not using their trade surplus US$ to buy TBill...
but buying more stuff, from Japan & their SEANeighbors
-------------

Thanks to improving exports, the trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October. Exports have reached the highest level since August 2008.

-------------------

Only in China could a 34.9% jump in exports, as was seen in November, be outpaced by an even-bigger 37.7% surge in imports. That led the monthly surplus to shrink to $22.9 billion. China quickly ratcheted up reserve rate requirements for banks but the market is waiting to see if interest-rate hikes are coming.

============

U.S. trade deficit narrows to $38.7 billion
Lowest deficit since January
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-deficit-narrows-sharply-in-october-2010-12-10
-----------------
China exports, imports surge in November
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-exports-imports-surge-in-november-2010-12-10
=============

Mortgage rates are up so the sky must be falling

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that mtg apps - both REFI & purchase - ARE falling, a lot.
and will, for the foreseeable future.

What is strange is that in late 08 sales dropped of the cliff
and then rates jumped, a few months later. Why?

What happened at the beginnng of Q4-09 makes sense...
interest rates dropped and sales started up.
What is happening now also makes sense.
as rates start back up, sales start to fall, fast.
And they will, a LOT more.
RE markets are in even more trouble than they were already in...
and it was the worst we have seen in decades.
Uglier.
-------------

=========
Mortgage rates are up so the sky must be falling
Commentary: Boy have we been spoiled by low rates
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-are-up-so-the-sky-must-be-falling-2010-12-09
===========