Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Inflation: Core CPI, Median CPI, 16% trimmed-mean CPI remain below 1% YoY + Inflation Subdued, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Edge Upward

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that these are very different from the charts in the blog entry above....
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Over the last 12 months
the median CPI rose 0.5%
the trimmed-mean CPI rose 0.8%
the CPI rose 1.1%
and the CPI less food and energy rose 0.8%
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So, not only is is very low
it is below "the expectation"...!!!
shown in the 3rd chart below
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This graph shows these three measure of inflation on a year-over-year basis.
They all show that inflation has been falling, and that measured inflation is up less than 1% year-over-year.
Inflation Measures
Note: The Cleveland Fed has a discussion of a number of measures of inflation: Measuring Inflation
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The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both increased in November.
It appears that rents have bottomed and are starting to increase again (this fits with earlier reports of falling vacancy rates and rising rents). I don't expect rents to push up inflation very much (I think core inflation will stay low for some time with all the slack in the system), but rising rents suggests that the excess rental housing units are being absorbed - a necessary step for an eventual recovery in residential investment.
Rent Inflation
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both inflation and expected inflation remain below the Fed’s long-run target values, something that will increase the Fed’s confidence that it can keep inflation under control as it pursues QEII.

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Inflation: Core CPI, Median CPI
16% trimmed-mean CPI remain below 1% YoY
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/inflation-core-cpi-median-cpi-16.html
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Inflation Subdued, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Edge Upward
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/maximum-utility/inflation-subdued-industrial-production-and-capacity-utilization-edge-upward/1048/
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