RE and economic charts: Housing Starts Up, Permits Down

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Housing Starts Up, Permits Down

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the very good analysis from Zacks in the 1st article
which uses the great charts from Jim@CR.
The article is a "highly recommended read".
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First, note that in the 1st CR chart single homes ARE separated from multi-units.
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If one looks at only single-family houses, the improvement was somewhat better, rising to 465,000 from 435,000 in October (revised down slightly from 436,000), an increase of 6.9%. The volatile multi-family (condo and co-op) sector plunged 18.2% to an annual rate of just 72,000 (although October was revised much higher to 88,000 from 74,000 units).
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Multi-units are VERY volatile, so we need a moving average for them.
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CR's 2nd chart is unique - showing U.S. "empty" homes.
What CR cannot show U.S. is:
a) How many homes are still occupied, but the resident is NOT paying their mortgage.
b) How many "foreclosed" homes there are, sitting empty in the shadow inventory.
So, as bad as it looks, tis actually much worse.
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Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts