hope for less is more...
but, fear for it being worse than we knew...
Jim @ CR has just provided U.S. with his "projection" of what the "months of supply" of homes is, and what effect that will have on the prices of homes over the next few months.
Tis not a pretty picture..., but it could be a whole lot worse, too.
Could be in both senses: could turn out a whole lot worse, and it won't but could be.
What Jim is saying, in addition to the fact that months of supply tracks almost perfectly with Case-Shiller, is that:
Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (red line, inverted).
Above 6 months of supply house prices are usually falling (although there were many programs to support house prices over the last year).
AND, that we now have a 10 months supply...!!!
Obviously, if THAT is true, we will see falling home prices.
How much, neither he nor we - you and U.S.- can predict.
But, we ARE going back down.
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Housing: Timing for reported increase in Months-of-Supply and Decrease in House Prices
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