Saturday, December 18, 2010

All of the Piigs are equal, but some are more equal than others. = Ireland, Iceland and Greece Outperform Germany? Really?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that we are still in a sand "state"...
no puns intended.
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These charts show that the three basket-case countries of Europe - Greece, Ireland and Iceland - substantially outperform Germany during the boom years, which is to be expected (blue bars). For example, Greece had productivity growth averaging 2.4% per year from 1997 to 2007, compared to only 1% per year for Germany.
What is more surprising is that Greece, Ireland and Iceland continue to outperform Germany, even when we factor in the five years of the bust, including forecasts through 2012 (the red bar). For example, average real GDP growth in Iceland is projected to be 2.7% annually over the 1997-2012 time period, almost double the 1.4% growth rate of Germany.
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Dec 18 07:44 PM
while your charts are very interesting, first, please, notice that we could create the same picture for the Sand State RE loans during the dead zone.

That was then, this is now.

What we need YOU to do for U.S. is look at those same countries for the three years AFTER your charts ending. Not what was forecast to, but what DID happen. Now, what do we - you and U.S. - see?

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Dec 18 07:38 PM
Said you: "bank capital (or lack therein) as [Ireland's] current impediment to growth?" & "If bankers don't lend, what do they do?"

Said we: Well, first, what the Irish banks did was allow, as in trick?, the Govt to "guarantee" that they would suffer NO losses on bad RE loans they made using borrowed EURO bank's money. Then, they allowed, as in tricked?, the German, French & UK Govts to guarantee the German, French & UK banks NEW loans to the Irish Govt to cover the guarantees to the the Irish banks to cover the loans from the German, French & UK banks. You Do follow that, do you not.

So, like W before them, the EURO Govts "nationalized" the RE debts of THEIR own bank's loans in Ireland.

Everybody says that Ireland LOST on that deal. Oh, really?

If the Irish people default on their home loans, the Irish Govt has to pay them off. If, however, the Irish Govt defaults on their new Euro bank loans, the EURO Govts will have to pay off the EURO banks.

My question: Who, if anyone, understood THAT shell game?

So, to answer your question, the EURO banksters are taking their chips back off the Irish roulette wheel of fortune, and cashing them in - to be Franc with you! And, no, they will not loan it back out again.
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Ireland, Iceland and Greece Outperform Germany? Really?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242455-ireland-iceland-and-greece-outperform-germany-really?source=email_the_macro_view
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